FM Ron Young's USCL Predictions

The Quarrel for the Laurel

2011-11-20T03:02:00.001-08:00

I don't remember offhand if in the past I headlined the final matches (a la "Chicago vs. New York"), but my emerging æsthetic sense tells me it is inelegant to do so, as there is obviously only one match I can be talking about, and if anyone doesn't know without my telling them, then he is not a real USCL fan and can hardly expect me to cater to him.

I liked Chicago from the start of the season because of the variety of strong lineups they could field, and as if to prove it, tonight they are putting up one that is about a hundred points lower rated than last week's. New York's great strength was in their variety of underrated kids they could field, but as I am sure you have read, none of those kids are available this week, so honorary kid-for-life emeritus John Fernandez is stepping in(to it?). My sense of bloodlust is almost as strong as my æsthetic sense, so I would like to see Chicago punished for their lack of same, evidenced by their agreeing to this substitution. But I think they are just good enough to prevail. So my official pick is Chicago, but in the event of a tie, I favor New York in the blitz playoff. Of course, New York always has very good chances to get all four players to the site, being a compact city with lots of public transit options, so they are looking good on that front as well.

Division Finals

2011-11-14T01:05:00.001-08:00

New York vs. Manhattan:

The US Chess League is tough at any time, but the postseason (for those who have not been there) is a real test of one's mettle, or manhood, you might even say, if you are not squeamish. Just look at this week's matches--only sixteen names to play with, of which I have used up about half already. And most of the others I have beaten my head against many times, sometimes desperately. But as I indicated, I lack the squeam gene.

It will help today if you are familiar with the characters who peopled "Life in Hell", Matt Groening's pre-"Simpsons" comic strip, that used to run in the alternative rags. Even if you are familiar, it will help quite a bit if you kinda work with me and get into the spirit of things. I borrowed a character without authorization, so let us hope Groening is as cool as the author of Captain Goodvibes obviously is. Should he prove less, though, and sue and put the league out of business, at least we go out on a brighter note than Joe Paterno.

And I am picking Manhattan again, the odds givers, because...well, it would approach unseemliness for me to say it again.

Chicago vs. Los Angeles:

Now this match features a truly gaudy pair of W/L records. But then, gaud is the greatest (cryptic clue to the jumble above). But the gaudiest are the greatestest, and right now, that means Chicago.

Division Semifinals

2011-11-07T10:24:00.000-08:00

Chicago vs. Dallas:

I am doing this last-minute; no time to darken or color so the scrambled words at left are HYLACK, NICEMD, ACELLO, ASITES, and the word balloons read "Hey, what did you find out for me about that -------- ----?" and "Just fly to JFK and follow the signs to the AirTrain", respectively. And despite the diligent preparation on the part of Dallas implied by the drawing, I pick Chicago to win and advance.

San Francisco vs. Los Angeles:

I like San Francisco, as they are very solid on the top three boards, by which I mean I think they will be pressing to win up there and are likely to draw where they fail to win. But I don't like them so much as to pick them to advance in the face of the draw odds they are giving. If anybody is keeping score, I pick San Francisco to win the match, because that seems the likeliest among the three (SF wins, drawn match, LA wins) outcomes, but I pick LA to advance, because I like having two chances out of three.

Philadelphia vs. Manhattan:

I like Manhattan's lineup a little better. Of course, as I rationalized above, there is the draw odds and the two-chances-in-three thing, but if that feels like wimping out to me, it must look positively despicable to you. Manhattan to win, then.

New York vs. Boston:

Ok, I think I can finesse this one. I favor New York slightly based on the lineups, and they do have draw odds. When you have draw odds, the other team has to go overboard trying to win, and so they lose more often than they would normally. So, I pick New York to win and advance.

Week Ten, part two

2011-11-02T01:17:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. Boston:

I apologize to that portion of my readership who are not familiar with 1970's Australian comic strips, as they have no real chance to understand this one. But I am trying to grow my brand and who knows, maybe next time YOUR niche interest will be represented.

I thought of asterisking "bonker" to the effect that it is not in my dictionary, so it is not going to be the answer word. But even if it happens to be in your dictionary, you might guess (correctly) that I would not have spelt it all out if I meant it to be the answer word, except perhaps on April Fool's Day, but one of the unfortunate things about this league is the lack of opportunity for April Fool's gags.

Anyway, New Jersey to win, which will be sad for Boston if it happens, but of course maybe it won't.

New York vs. Philadelphia:

Although any type of normal outcome works out well for Philly, I predict the particular one where they win the match.

Carolina vs. Manhattan:

Manhattan is in the annoying situation of having good tiebreaks, but still possibly needing to win their match. It almost makes one say, "why bother?". But they are a young team, have probably not been beaten down too much by life yet, and I think they will find the strength to continue and prevail.

Baltimore vs. New England:

The defending leaguce champs do not control their own destiny, but as clever sportswriters are fond of pointing out, nobody "controls" his destiny, because then it isn't "destiny". I pick New England to win and then get lucky somewhere, but remember that I'm right even if I'm only half right.

Btw, we had a real live "Nor'easter" in the Northeast this past week, which did worse damage to places that didn't really get damaged than Irene. Many branches down, even without much wind. Apparently this was because snow + leaves = too much weight for the branches to support. Additionally, this storm did not disprove global warming.

Week Ten, part one

2011-10-29T20:08:00.000-07:00

Dallas vs. Miami:

Playing to a tie is like kissing your sister, and Miami has a better looking sister than Dallas. But just this once, give some thought to the sister who has to be kissed by her brother. Do you think she is any happier? I think Dallas will win so there won't have to be any kissing.

San Francisco vs. St. Louis:

But why not, after all. I say the Nics win and grab a playoff spot.

Chicago vs. Arizona:

Arizona's chances to continue beyond this week took a hit while I was writing this, as Nakamura has been scratched and so St. Louis, Arizona's horse, is now a big dog in its match with San Francisco. Now I'm stuck with Arizona to win a probably meaningless match. I'll have to write faster next time.

Los Angeles vs. Seattle:

The park hustler Ralph liked to sing "It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas" when his opponents blundered stuff. I thought this was much more apposite than "trick or treat", as favored by the two rival kiddies in "Searching for Bobby Fischer". On the other hand, the latter does not require any singing ability. Anyway, for Halloween, in honor of my pagan ancestors, I pick Seattle to trick, and LA to treat.

Week Nine, part two

2011-10-25T23:02:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. New York:

Ben Franklin compared New Jersey to a keg tapped at both ends. Of course, he never metaphor he didn't like. Anyway, Philly has done its tapping so New York must respond in kind or fall behind. But at least they get the bubbly part. New York.

New England vs. Carolina:

I think he did it, or will do it. New England.

Dallas vs. San Francisco:

Four teams are seriously fighting for the final two playoff spots in the West and these are two of them. Of the two, Dallas has the worse tiebreak propects, so to win this match would clearly be the smart thing to do. They seem pretty smart. One of them even wears glasses. Dallas gets the nod.

St. Louis vs. Seattle:

First, the B-53 gets dismantled and now Hikaru. If I am any judge of trends, it's a good time to invest in bows and arrows. And Seattle.

Week Nine, part one

2011-10-24T03:16:00.000-07:00

Philadelphia vs. Manhattan:

Manhattan can virtually clinch a spot by winning here and I was on the verge of picking them to do so. But Fisher has been so strong on Four that that feels kind of nuts. And as we all know and are often reminded this time of year, sometimes you don't. Philadelphia.

Boston vs. Baltimore:

Boston unaccustomedly has to scrounge for a playoff spot, but scrounging is a skill that anyone can learn and I believe that Boston will.

Miami vs. Chicago:

Chicago has to give some time odds, but not too overwhelmingly much. It's tempting to pick against perfection and go for the genius points, but I'm with Bill Walsh; I'd rather be an artist. Which brings us to...

Arizona vs. Los Angeles:

Arizona. And Chicago, which I hinted at but did not quite state just above because it would have messed up my smooth segue into this match. And I'm an artist.

Week Eight, part two

2011-10-19T00:20:00.000-07:00

New England vs. New Jersey:

New Jersey needs this so badly that they don't need it at all. Does that paradox have a name? Anyway, I think they could really just about win this match, so I'm picking them.

Manhattan vs. Baltimore:

Manhattan's four players tonight are all in their twenties, just when the human brain is at its peak effectiveness. How is that for good timing? If they can't win now, just imagine what the rest of their lives will be like. I do pick them to win, though.

Miami vs. St. Louis:

The scrambled word on top of the column on the right is in fact OJLACE, just in case you think the J looks like a T that looks like a J. And though the scene depicted in the jumbles usually is of the team I am picking to win, Kim Kardashian does not have the tail to wag the dog of this prediction. I pick Miami by a lot.

Dallas vs. Chicago:

Anything can happen, but it usually doesn't. Chicago again.

Week Eight, part one

2011-10-17T00:10:00.001-07:00

Philadelphia vs. New York:

Looking at Panchanathan's USCL game history, he seems to draw remarkably often. It makes me feel even more astute for my SF-Arizona analysis below. If Panch does in fact manage to neutralize Kacheishvili, the performance of his teammates so far this season makes their chances in this match look pretty good. It does not logically follow from this, though, that Philadelphia is to be favored, so let me state it explicitly. Philadelphia is to be favored.

Carolina vs. Boston:

Mosiyenko lacks a picture on this site, which leads me to assume "kid", which in this league usually means "underrated", because that's what separates the men kids from the boy kids. That plus Boston's significant rating edge elsewhere makes them seem the clear choice.

San Francisco vs. Arizona:

This jumble was drawn with a government-issue #2 pencil, and it writes well enough, but the eraser is too firm, which is probably what caused the metal thing that holds the eraser to fall out the first time I moved to erase. So although the government may waste money on many things, pencils seem not to be one of them.

I guess I am picking Arizona although I don't remember why; it may be simply because that is the way the jumble points. Of course, I have always identified more with the tail than with the dog. Also, though chess was invented in India, the Persians invented checkmate.*

Seattle vs. Los Angeles:

Migratory patterns resulted in a flourishing chess culture in the area of Los Angeles in the early 21st century, which in turn lead me to pick the Vibe in this match.

* Astute analysis, as explained under Philly-NY.

Week Seven, part two

2011-10-11T22:28:00.000-07:00

Manhattan vs. New England:

I think I prefer New England. Oh, it's a chess match? Manhattan, then. Actually, accordingtowikipedia (hereafter "ATW"), Manhattan clam chowder was actually invented by Portuguese immigrants in Rhode Island, and it was dubbed "Manhattan"-style by haughty New Englanders who felt that "calling someone a New Yorker was an insult". Not to agree or disagree, but it strikes me suddenly that I can't think of any famous songs about Boston. A few spring to mind that sort of reference Boston, such as the "write ZOOM" jingle, the "Cheers" theme, and the Kingston Trio's "MTA". Is there something obvious I am overlooking?

Baltimore vs. Carolina:

IMO, this is not the most strained jumble of all time. There was one about the Yangtse river that I think still holds the record. If you disagree, though, well, records were made to be broken. Drawing the period at the end of the "_ _ _ _ _" in the word balloon was probably overly retentive from the anal point of view, and liable to cause confusion, so I guess I won't do it anymore. Baltimore.

Chicago vs. San Francisco:

Each board looks to me like Chicago shouldn't lose, and a couple of them it seems like they might win. SF has greater need, but Chi has greater greed. I'll stick with the Blaze.

Arizona vs. Dallas:

Molner has performed well this season and with the white pieces, I count him the favorite on top board. Adelberg has black on Four, so he can't play the Catalan. It's all falling into place for Arizona.

Week Seven, part one

2011-10-09T22:34:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. Philadelphia:

The Philadelphia Flyers spoiled the Boston Bruins' Stanley Cup ceremony this week and I see that trend continuing, minus the cup and the ceremony. Philadelphia.

New York vs. New Jersey:

If I were to point out a propos of this match that New Jersey holds a lifetime 5-3 edge over New York, and if Phil Mushnick of the NY Post sports section were suddenly to start covering the USCL, I would be eviscerated for mindlessly spouting an inane and irrelevant statistic. I think I'll hang on to my intestines, thank you. New York.

Los Angeles vs. Miami:

This one is for advanced solvers. Advanced in just what, you may decide. LA.

Seattle vs. St. Louis:

If memory serves, St. Louis is more often on the giving end of time odds than the receiving. If if it doesn't, hey, I still have my emotions and motor functions to work with. The Archies, #1 with a bullet this week.

Week Six, part two

2011-10-04T22:56:00.000-07:00

Miami vs. New England:

I tend to pick Miami when it's close and Becerra seems likely to get a Ruy Lopez. But being a diligent researcher, I checked Hungaski's opening history and found he plays a mix of things against 1 e4. So I predict no Ruy Lopez, and New England wins the match.

Chicago vs. Baltimore:

A tough match that Chicago could just conceivably not win. Ok, I've crawled out jst about far enough on that limb. Chicago.

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia:

I seem to have regressed a couple of centuries in my understanding of perspective. Luckily, this is the 21st century, so there are plenty still to work with. This would also have worked out better as the color drawing this week, since the logos would then have stood out more, but tradition is not to be trifled with. Anyway, Philadelpia. By two, even.

San Francisco vs. Manhattan:

I didn't really know Jay Whitehead, but he was friendly when I spoke to him on the phone. I see San Francisco winning for the former Berkeley Rioter.

Week Six, part one

2011-10-02T22:58:00.001-07:00

Carolina vs. Dallas:

Perhaps a brief explanation is in order here: in resuming my increasingly desperate search for jumble ideas, I came across an “indie pop” combo of which I had never heard called “Ivy”. This is no reflection on them, as I am pretty far removed from the music scene, but I fear it is possible to be in much closer touch than I am and still be unfamiliar with this band. But after exposing myself to the dangers that lurk on just about every song lyrics site on the web, I feel it would be a sad waste to refuse to avail myself of the use of a song title from the brand new Ivy album that was scheduled to be released this past September 20 and for all I know was in fact. The drawing is based on the one photograph that the band has on their web site; I imagine in an actual concert they would be holding instruments. Also, the guy on the right looks less effeminate/androgynous in the actual photo (and, I assume, in real life) than he turned out in my rendition, so apologies to him. And Dallas by two.

Boston vs. Arizona:

Larry C is playing making his season debut tonight. Does this mean he is a big Red Sox fan? Not that I would gloat. As the famous Athenian lawgiver Solon used to say, back in the Golden Age, before the financial crisis, "count no man happy until he is dead. Only lucky". "Happy" had a different connotation then, and so did "lucky", but the point remains. Arizona.

New York vs. Seattle:

When a 59-points-per-board rating average dog wins, that is a full-blown upset. This is where I make my name. But I will give the players their share of credit. Seattle.

New Jersey vs. Los Angeles:

A late switch in the New Jersey lineup leads to big time odds and big rating deficit. This on top of the glamour odds they always have to spot New York and Manhattan makes it hard to see NJ getting much tabloid space. LA.

Week Five, part two

2011-09-27T13:27:00.000-07:00

New York vs. Manhattan:

I once arrived about 40 minutes late for a game against Walter Shipman, and eventually lost. In the post-mortem he attributed the move that got me into trouble as likely due to the time I had sacrificed. I didn't see why time was so much likelier the culprit than faulty understanding, but I suspected it was his way of chiding me for being so late, even though outwardly he didn't act offended. Anyway, the lesson was clear, but apparently not to everyone. Manhattan.

Philadelphia vs. Baltimore:

Damon Runyon once wrote "the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." At least, if you don't have to beat a point spread or lay money odds. I don't. Philadelphia.

Chicago vs. St. Louis:

This jumble came hard, and it is just as hard to say what the point of it is. Even so, I would be remiss in not thanking Yahoo's "search assist" feature for its help. I still use Yahoo as my home page, simply because my primary email is there, simply because it already was when Google started to take over and there didn't seem enough point in changing to change. It is likely that Google's search assist would have served just as well, but I don't think I need to thank it for what it would have done when it didn't actually do anything. One for the Ethicist's column.

The "surprise answer", to use the language of the newspaper Jumble™,® or whatever (to give them their due), is 7,6, though the end got slighty cut off in the picture. Chicago "FTW", as the kids say.

San Francisco vs. Seattle:

In the Cold War classic "How to Beat the Russians at Chess", the late Edmar Mednis wrote "the Russians, though far from invincible with White, are more likely to lose with Black". Twenty-two years after the Berlin Wall came down, I think we can recognize and state out loud that the Russians are people just as we are, and that we Americans too, though far from invincible with White, are more likely to lose with Black. I think that Kraai will not lose and that the Mechanics will win, but I only have to be right about the latter thing, and really, what's going to happen if I'm wrong twice?

Week Five, part one

2011-09-25T19:20:00.001-07:00

New England vs. Boston:

Last week's Kacheishvili-Sammour game was featured in the New York Times on Sunday the 25th (yesterday, if you are reading this hot off the press). It shared the space with a couple of other news items and there was a partial game from the recent Women's Grand Prix in Russia, but K-S was the star attraction. That, IMO, is even more prestigious than being the sole feature, because it makes clear that a choice was made and the USCL game deemed worthy of most attention.

I just noticed that this is already the second meeting of the year for these teams. Imagine if the Brooklyn Dodgers were done with the New York Giants by the end of May? Perhaps the league feared street riots in the event of a late-season showdown. Of course, if the Nor'easters don't step it up soon, this may turn out to be late-season after all, for practical purposes. I say they do. New England by a NECCO wafer.

New Jersey vs. Carolina:

The Cobras by a tongue-length.

Arizona vs. Miami:

Another rematch. Maybe the schedule maker is just not very imaginative. I take a certain satisfaction in the fact that I had the experience in my chess career of sealing a move before the green movement to save the envelope came along. But sadly, having a game adjudicated seems destined to remain unchecked on my bucket list. The Mateer-Pelaez game in Week One, though, finished just this way! In Anno Domini 2011, or this year, whatever your religious persuasion. I may have made this my jumble game had I noticed it earlier, but maybe next year. Anyway, I say Miami takes its revenge today. By a flagler.

Dallas vs. Los Angeles:

I guess when you're overwhelmed by such weird letters as C, Y, and J, it seems as though the order hardly matters, but I am pretty sure it is "Patrycza" and not "Patrcyza". However, I am not Polish, even though ten to fifteen thousand years ago a patrilineal ancestor of mine of European origin was born on the grassy steppes in the region of present-day Ukraine or Southern Russia, so I could well be mistaken. The Vibe by a shiver.

Week Four, part two

2011-09-19T22:00:00.001-07:00

Manhattan vs. New Jersey:

And the Sauce will be boss.

Carolina vs. New York:

Last week saw the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, and there were many solemn commemorations, but I now will share a more light-hearted chess-related remembrance of the WTC. One day during the Kasparov-Anand world championship match, the day's game had just ended, and a woman asked where the bathroom was. She was pointed to a room with the word "black" taped to the door. This did in fact match her approximate skin color, but she was nonetheless taken aback, as it was already 1995 and she was comfortably north of the Mason-Dixon line. She briefly rationalized that a hundred-odd floors above street level, the winds of history might blow somewhat differently. Eventually, though, she realized that she had been directed to one of the player bathrooms, since they began to shut down the space as soon as the day's game was over.

I allowed on Monday that to call my pick of New England over Philadelphia an "upset special" would be grossly hyperbolic, but in light of the 0.5-3.5 outcome, I have changed my mind. That was the "upset special". If you missed it, buy your ticket now for next week's. New York.

St. Louis vs. Arizona:

St. Louis's lineup of GM, IM, FM, Untitled is æsthetically pleasing, but Arizona's IM, IM, FM, FM, while perhaps more commonplace, is nonetheless in quiet good taste. Scorpions.

Los Angeles vs. Chicago:

I may be missing a golden opportunity here, but I used "Amanov" in one of last year's jumbles. I do reserve the right, though, to use either Amanov's first name, if I learn how to pronounce them. On the other hand, maybe it's better not to learn the offical correct pronunciation, because that way, I get to decide. Anyway, let us hope that the losing Amanov deals with defeat better than I did when Angelo won the battle of the Youngs. Chicago.

Week Four, part one

2011-09-17T16:00:00.000-07:00

Philadelphia vs. New England:

I don't mean to get off cheaply on my promise by picking an upset that's not really an upset, but as I don't know Wednesday's lineups just now, I can't promise that won't happen. New England.

Baltimore vs. Boston:

Ironically, though the term "sneakers" for what are also known as "tennis shoes" is thought to have originated in Boston, it is Baltimore whose lineup spells out KEDS reading down. I therefore pick the latter to walk over the former.

Miami vs. San Francisco:

I know it's boring to pick just by adding numbers, but with three Mechanics having Wikipedia pages to just one Shark, it's too convenient to resist. San Francisco.

Seattle vs. Dallas:

Ok, this one is even a bit more strained than usual. But at least it's in color. Dallas.

Week Three, part two

2011-09-13T01:43:00.000-07:00

New York vs. Boston:

Are you ready to jummmmblllle? Well, you'll have to wait, because I'm going to begin with a riddle: what is black and white and green all over? Maybe next time, after somebody shows me how, I'll hide the answer in a spoiler box, but since I can't figure it out myself, I'm just going to give you the answer straight out, namely.....this jumble! I saved a sheet of paper by drawing this on the other side of last week's. Unfortunately, some of the old puzzle shows through and gives the new one sort of a dirty appearance. I cleaned it up a bit with the paint program but I stopped when it got complicated and I got tired, so I guess I won't repeat this experiment. Sorry, rain forest, I did try.

And New York by a (slightly dirty) sanchez.

New Jersey vs. Philadelphia:

This looks closer than it looks, as far as I can see. But even if New Jersey is underrated, Philly may yet be accurately rated. Philadelphia by an erving.

Dallas vs. St. Louis:

In the old days on ICC, there was a particular clique within a particular demi-monde that used to talk about the "Hua", which I recall came from a Brazilian cartoon and was something like "the Force" in the Star Wars universe. But this is not Brazil, is certainly not a cartoon, and is totally not the old days. I pick Dallas by a spanarkle.

Los Angeles vs. San Francisco:

I think I should really try to pick at least one upset each week, to liven things up some. But as I've just decided this right now, I only have one match to choose from this week, and that isn't fair. Therefore, San Francisco by a cepeda.

Week Three, part one

2011-09-11T17:04:00.000-07:00

Manhattan vs. Carolina:

I have missed a couple of chances to look smart by picking Carolina. But I really would not like to be thought smarter than I am. Manhattan.

New England vs. Baltimore:

They say you're only as good as your last match, which would mean New England isn't very. But I say you're only as good as your next match. Wow, that's almost good enough to go into the fortune cookie business for. New England.

Seattle vs. Miami:

Seattle by a Mumphrey.

Arizona vs. Chicago:

In Winston Churchill's WW II memoir, he recounted a little chat he had with Stalin at one of the Big Three meetings in which he mentioned a one-day trip to NYC that Molotov had taken after a conference in Washington had broken up. He felt suddenly remorseful when he realized that he may have got Molotov in trouble with his boss. Churchill reports, though, that Stalin made a joke out of it, saying, "no no, you're wrong, he did not go to New York. He went to Chicago to be with his fellow gangsters." Everybody laughed, and Churchill felt relieved at apparently not having done any real damage. But in the book "Nikita Khrushchev Remembers", written during the author's forced-but-not-too-uncomfortable retirement, Khrushchev reports that ever afterward, Stalin suspected Molotov of being an American agent. And on the Dick Cavett show in the early 1970's, the French actor Alain Delon told of how at the age of about fifteen he had stowed (stown?) away on a ship to America, with plans to go to Chicago, which he associated with Dillinger and Capone. Unfortunately, Cavett, who had already corrected Delon on a couple of minor matters of pronunciation, corrected him yet again, as Delon had given the "g" in "Dillinger" the swallowing treatment, as in "swallowing". After this, Delon didn't feel like talking much and the interview suffered.

Anyway, the point is that I was thinking of making some comparison of Chicago and Arizona in which the former is the home of working gangsters in their prime while the latter is where they retire, thanks in part to the government's witness protection program HALLELUJAH, MY COMPUTER CRASHED BUT EVERYTHING HERE WAS SAVED because that seemed more interesting than simply pointing to Chicago's hundred-point average rating edge, but it wasn't coming together too easily and there are the twin considerations of certainly overdone and possibly offensive, but I thought I would illustrate just how wide-spread is Chicago's gangster image for the sake of anyone in the future who needs to fill space writing about Chicago. Chicago.

Week Two, part two

2011-09-07T02:28:00.001-07:00

Boston vs. Manhattan:

And the prognosticator of the century picks Boston.

Baltimore vs. New Jersey:

New Jersey, because chess is 99% emotional.

Chicago vs. Miami:

Chicago still looks very good despite their late lineup switch and subsequent time odds. White pieces on the two boards where they have about a 300 point rating bulge looks like a great chance for a 2-0 lead and a 2-0 lead is a very promising start to a match. Bet Chi, and don’t be bashful about it.

San Francisco vs. Dallas:

If I were perfect, this matchup would put even my infallibility to the test. Pretty scary. But I’ll just close my eyes and pick Fs;;sd.

Week Two, part one

2011-09-04T22:16:00.001-07:00

New England vs. New York:

Now that the pressure of the never-losing-and-usually-winning streak is off, New England is free to deal with the pressure of possibly starting this season 0-2. I think there is a lesson here. New York by a hoffmann.

Philadelphia vs. Carolina:

Carolina's giving time odds was an unfortunate accident, but my picking them despite it would be an out-and-out dis. I am more respectful that that. Philadelphia by a rind.

St. Louis vs. Los Angeles:

LA by a robert d. james.

Arizona vs. Seattle:

When Seattle is on the right, their boxing kangaroo logo faces away from the opponents. That's not very intimidating. Arizona by two shakeds of a scorp's tail.

Week One, part two

2011-08-30T21:58:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. New England:

King Kong vs. Godzilla postponed due to weather? Ok, we'll say it was for the sake of the fans. I think the gorilla will justify its top bananadom. New England by a Francis.

Carolina vs. New Jersey:

New Jersey by a Kidd (but which one?).

Baltimore vs. New York:

If craigslist enabled one killer, the September 2010 USCF ratings list created a whole gangful. New York by a flegenheimer (I'm tiring of the sports thing).

St. Louis vs. San Francisco:

San Francisco's big bulge in the middle could be the new fashion. 3-1, them.

Seattle vs. Chicago:

One of the magic things from childhood that I remember is when my father would come home with the papers on Sunday, when the comic section (which also included a Jumble) would be in glorious color. Now these days, not only are daily color comics commonplace but even the regular news sections are often drenched in color, to the point that color doesn't seem special anymore. It is hard to turn the tide of "progress" but feeling that it is better to snuff out one candle than to curse the light, I will try to return the magic to color by making it a once-a-week thing again.

The reason the four scrambled words appear all over the place is that I was trying to trick the scanner into scanning the whole page, and it worked.

Chicago by a Boerwinkle.

Week One, part one

2011-08-29T00:54:00.000-07:00

Manhattan vs. Philadelphia:

I've written before about the problem of picking matches without having to say "2.5-1.5" all the time, which I find boring both to write and to look at. I've experimented with stock phrases from other sports such as "by a nose", and with team-specific phrases like "by a scorpion's tail", but I'm kind of tired of those, also. So my new thing will be to treat a proper name as a noun meaning "point". "Oiwin" (later "the Maven", and still later "Hondo") in the New York Post used to do that with his baseball and football picks, so there is nothing original about it but at least it's easy and the supply is plentiful. Philadelphia by a schmidt.

Miami vs. Arizona:

I remember being at a restaurant frequented by, among others, ladies of the evening (it was an all-night place, so it was convenient in that regard). A man approached one of these LOTEs and asked "are you available?", and received the reply "I'm available, but I'm not free". I am reminded by this when I look at Miami's lineup, because although these guys can play, the question is: can they play? Tonight, at least, at appears that they can. Miami by a csonka.

Los Angeles vs. Dallas:

A year later, I still haven't figured out how to turn off the "smart" feature of my scanner that insists on cropping these drawings. In my defense, I have not had to for any other purpose during the offseason. Anyway, I finally got most of it to copy and I even stumbled upon a way to improve the contrast. I think this drawing might be improved by adding another spectator who replies differently from the player, but at this point it is unlikely I will edit it.

Therefore, Dallas by a staubach.

Last Will and Testament

2011-08-27T20:25:00.000-07:00

First of all, congrats to the league on reaching its seventh season! If it were a schoolchild, it’d be entering first grade. If it were a teacher, it’d be eligible for sabbatical leave. The only downside I can see is for anyone who gambled on league merchandise becoming a rare collector’s item.

I generally start my forecasts with the Eastern division, maybe because it includes more of the older teams or perhaps in deference to its alphabetical primacy. I am worried, though, about the West getting an inferiority complex, so this time I will follow the equally venerable left-to-right tradition and start with the West. As with last year's forecast, the % numbers at the end are the chances I give each team to reach the post-season and to win the whole thing, respectively. Again just as last year, I am not taking any bets based on these percentages.

Western Division:

Chicago Blaze:

There are three obvious ways for a team to be good: have good players, be flexible, and have underrated players. I am respectful of others who believe in things like chemistry and team spirit but for my part, I will adopt a science-based approach. Chicago seems to fare as well as anyone in this regard, especially if Shulman is able to play reasonably often while counted as 2590.

80%, 11%.

Dallas Destiny:

Dallas looks to have many powerful lineups and since many of their players, I assume, are attending UTD, peer pressure to step up to the plate when called will be strong.

60%, 7%.

San Francisco Mechanics:

Both California entries look strong but San Francisco, being more compact than Los Angeles, seems less likely to have problems with players getting lost on their way to the playing site.

55%, 7%.

Seattle Sluggers:

I considered putting these guys lower, as Akobian may end up not playing often. I also considered putting them higher, as he may play every week. In the end, I put them here.

55%, 5%.

Los Angeles Vibe:

Maybe a bit dependent on having one of their top two available to play each week, but after all, they are both chess players, so what else should they be doing? And with the underrated kid role filled they ought to be competitive each week, and even victorious sometimes.

50%, 5%.

St. Louis Arch Bishops:

They still have the best name, and they have perhaps the most recognized US chess player today on their roster. A case could also be made for Kamsky, but when I ran each of them by Akinator the Web Genius, he got Hikaru after forty guesses but failed to come up with Kamsky’s name ever. To be fair, he did at least figure he was after a Brooklyn sporting legend and guessed Joey Chestnut, the champion hot dog eater.

Getting back to the team, I fear St. Louis is too dependent on too few lineups.

40%, 9%.

Arizona Scorpions:

I had these guys higher at first but then I remembered the Phoenix/Tucson division. In pro sports, there is plenty of money for hotels and such but as chess is not yet there so I remain leery of a team that has to cover an entire state.

45%, 5%.

Miami Sharks:

I see Miami has submitted a 2406-average lineup for the first week, so maybe they will survive their sudden lugolessness and amartinezity after all. But it’s a long season, even for players, and I don’t know they’ll be able to be as strong week after week. And let’s not forget the chemistry and team spirit Lugo and Martinez brought.

15%, 1%.

Eastern Division:

New York Knights:

It is standard practice to try to fill the lower end of the roster with underrated, or more precisely, outdated-rated kids, but these guys have made it into an art form. I kid you not. But this team just might.

80%, 11%.

Boston Blitz:

These guys always look very good to me. I’m not any happier about it than you are.

75%, 9%.

Philadelphia Inventors:

Since I first started working out these rankings, I see that Panchanathan has been added to Philadelphia’s roster, which makes them far less dependent on Erenburg’s constant availability. Which is a nice thing, as I am tiring of going on about “flexibility”. On the other hand, kids of today’s post-vinyl post-everything else age might not know what a broken record sounds like.

65%, 9%.

New England Nor'easters:

This team was unprecedentedly successful last season while showing a different look each week, and they look flexible enough again that no one is going to beat them just by filling out the lineup card.

60%, 8%.

New Jersey Knockouts:

Compared to the teams I have ranked above them, they seem to have less abundance of underratedness at the bottom.

50%, 6%.

Manhattan Applesauce:

This team could easily prove me wrong. And I haven’t even said anything! Just goes to show you, doesn’t it.

40%, 4%.

Baltimore Kingfishers:

It is encouraging to see Grandmasters replaced so easily in this league. Except perhaps to the grandmasters. But it’s a tough world out there. Let me just say, in the spirit of this “and the Oscar goes to” age, this team still looks less strong than a few others in the division.

20%, 2%.

Carolina Cobras:

As long as the top three can play, they have plenty of flexibility on board Four. In fact, they may have the MOST flexibility on board four in the LEAGUE in this or ANY year. As long as the top three can play. So I hope the top three realize that once you are an adult, no one cares how well rounded a person you are. You simply have to kick ass.

10%, 1%.

The Thing for the Ring

2010-11-17T06:44:00.001-08:00

New England vs. Miami:

You may remember that last week I announced a raising of the intellectual level of the jumble, so this week, to compensate, I am lowering the level of taste. I expect the puzzle itself will prove easy enough to figure out, but the challenge is to get (in the sense of "understand") it. I know that I would not have got it a couple of hours ago, before I did some educational googling. On the bright side, perhaps you will be happier not understanding, expecially if you are a Miami fan (we won't think about Miami players).

But the jumble is just the means to an end, after all, and that it is to let you know in advance what's going to happen in the match, so that you may do something else with your valuable time. New England on top, in regulation. By a sharp point.

Division Finals

2010-11-04T19:47:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. New England:

Life naturally gets tougher during playoff season but even so I think it fair to advise that I am raising the intellectual level of the jumble this week.

I think Boston is more likely to win on two of the top three tables at the T party than to lose one. That leaves Board Four which it may be Boston loses but, as always, "maybe" implies "maybe not". New England has waltzed through the season so far but tonight they're dancing with the stars. Boston.

Arizona vs. Miami:

We're down to the final four of November Niaiserie, bébé. While Miami has been here before, Arizona is here now. But Adamson had a marathon last week and it is highly gebrselassie that he'll be ready for another. In the long run, the sprinter has the edge. Miami.

The artist in his studio

Division Semifinals

2010-11-01T14:24:00.000-07:00

New England vs. New York:

The jumbled words all over the place represent my first attempt to thwart the "smart features" of the scanner that discourage it from scanning the entire document. It didn't work. However, adding the partial straight line on the right (that I have left in as evidence of my ingenuity) worked better. A tiny sliver of word balloon on the left was cut off, but I don't think that will thwart any of you (or just you, as the case may be).

As for the match, I'm picking New York. On the one hand, that's an insult to the Nor'easters, who have stampeded through the season thus far. But on the other, when they make the movie, they may base the character of "doubting prognosticator" on me, and then I'll clean up on consulting fees.

Late edit: To borrow an old Yermo joke, look for Al to be the hero.

Baltimore vs. Boston:

I don't know if I have to pick a winner, or if I can get away with just "to advance". But I don't expect any breaks from the world, so Boston to win. I'd be more specific as to why, but as David Pruess pointed out earlier this week, get too specific and you prevent what was going to happen from happening.

Miami vs. Chicago:

What a night the people will see. What a fight the people will see. Glory be.

Edit: It has been suggested to me that not everyone is up on the Billboard Hot 100 of 1974, or was it still "Your Hit Parade"? Anyway, the above paragraph means "Miami".

Arizona vs. Seattle:

All four matches today, because I do not want to get into lazy habits. Arizona, partly because Altounian is good at not losing, and partly just because.

Week Ten, part two

2010-10-27T06:05:00.000-07:00

Chicago vs. Dallas:

Chicago needs to draw, Dallas needs to win. The less you need, the more likely you are to exceed what you need. Chicago to win.

San Francisco vs. Miami:

You know, I really feel I hit on a good formula there. I think I'll write it down. Miami.

Seattle vs. St. Louis:

But you can't always trust everything to formulas. Imagine, say, if P equalled W/t every time. Who'd want to love in such a world? Not I. Seattle.

Los Angeles vs. Arizona:

So why devote the jumble to the one match that doesn't mean anything? Because it's still chess, damn it, and I love it.

And maybe they will find it. By next year. Arizona.

Week Ten, part one

2010-10-25T06:44:00.001-07:00

Manhattan vs. New England:

With nothing at stake as far as this season goes, I don't think Manhattan will do anything to jeopardize their position in the draft. New England, 3-1.

Carolina vs. Philadelphia:

Let's be honest--we were all a little worried about Mike Shahade. But he seems to have found the form that once made him Chess Life cover boy. Philadelphia.

Boston vs. New York:

I think I lapsed into cliché last time and said something about New York wanting to "send a message" to New England. I'm sorry about that. And of course, my prediction was wrong. But how about this: New York this week wants to send a message to themselves. "Oooooooooh". Right? New York.

New Jersey vs. Baltimore:

So, picking up more or less where I left off, but this time it is only the two balloons that need to be filled in, as I have done the third one for you. I have not labelled which clue words go with which word balloons, but the left/right divider at bottom is where it is for a reason. In the words of Phil Donahue, "I'm not going to patronize you smart people". Baltimore.

Week Nine, part two

2010-10-20T02:11:00.000-07:00

New England vs. Carolina:

Of the four matches scheduled for tonight, the most competitive features a seventy-two point average rating difference, and this is not that match. New England by two.

Philadelphia vs. Manhattan:

This isn't, either. Manhattan by two.

Arizona vs. St. Louis:

And neither is this. Even so, I will make it my modified upset special. St. Louis by only one. Lest we forget I've got a pair.

Dallas vs. Los Angeles:

For æsthetic reasons I hope will become clear, I thought it necessary to make a jumble of each of the three word balloons. Dallas by two.

Week Nine, part one

2010-10-18T12:11:00.001-07:00

New York vs. New Jersey:

So New Jersey find itself in the spoiler role. Will New Jersey win because they hate New York, or will New York lose because they hate New Jersey? Neither, I think, because the presence of Manhattan in the regional mix dilutes the hate factor to less than decisive influence. New York.

Baltimore vs. Boston:

Sammour's season debut last week showed one of the hidden dangers of being a great blitz player. At tournament time controls, such players are apt to indulge themselves by spending forty-five minutes on such questions as: should I point my knight's face toward the opponent's king, to intimidate, or should I point it away, to misdirect? Should I carry my piece to its new square, to avoid collisions, or should I gently slide it, to conserve energy? (en passant, I'm not sure how to describe the little flourish some give to indicate that they intend their piece to stay a while on its new square but "screwing the piece in" seems a misnomer, unless the player actually gives the piece several clockwise turns before releasing it. I can't say I've run into that one). Anyway, with the rust shaken out, I expect better time management resulting in better moves. Boston.

Chicago vs. Miami:

Chicago has lost its last two matches in rather heartbreaking fashion but, to echo that wrestler that I quoted here about five years ago, they've still got a liver, a stomach, and two kidneys to play with. Chicago.

Seattle vs. San Francsico:

I'll try to draw darker next time, if I remember. I tend to go softly in case I need to erase but then if I don't, it's too light. Anyway, FAGEND BEIRON MANROD CATELK HUGBOT, and 7,1,9. And Seattle.

Week Eight, part two

2010-10-13T12:13:00.000-07:00

New York vs. New England:

Imposing lineup for New York tonight. They clearly want to send a message for the postseason and I don't think they'll be hearing from Mailer Daemon. New York.

Carolina vs. Boston:

Boston needs to improve its game record to have any hope in the tiebreak wars, so I don't think they'll be fooling around tonight. Boston by three.

St. Louis vs. Francisco:

...which augurs a victory for St. Louis, if only a minimal one.

Miami vs. Los Angeles

Both teams may be going nowhere, but who will enjoy the trip more? Miami, I think.*

* That means I pick them to win, but I couldn't think of a graceful way to make that clear.

Week Eight, part one

2010-10-11T01:09:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. Manhattan:

New Jersey's governor recently quashed funding for a new rail tunnel under the Hudson. I guess they are satisfied that they are self-sufficient so that they don't need to facilitate free exchange of ideas with the outside. But it's a big, happening world out there and you'll miss a lot if you turn your eyes in on yourself. Manhattan.

Baltimore vs. Philadelphia:

Apparently, the Knights' sword and shield got thrown out in a housecleaning at the Marshall. But with the cardboard and aluminum foil went the last emotional link tying Jay Bonin to the team. If someone had tossed out Excalibur, imagine how different the imaginary world might have been. Philadephia.

Dallas vs. Seattle:

The underrrated Guo on board four looks like Seattle's secret weapon. I say "secret" because clicking his player link shows only his two games through week five but, dogged investigator that I am, I dug deeper, clicking on the games link, and uncovered a third win this season, in week six. Seattle.

Arizona vs. Chicago:

And Chicago it is.

Week Seven, part two

2010-10-06T14:06:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. New Jersey:

For New Jersey, it is do-and-maybe-die-anyway-or-die. Or tie. How about a tie. I haven't picked one of those in a while.

Philadelphia vs. New England:

"Put the bone in", she begged him,
As she paced across the floor.
"Put the bone in", she yelled out once more.
"Put the bone in"

The last time I quoted "Put the Bone in", I picked against Philadelphia anyway. I feel guilty about that. This time, I am picking Philly. Philly, 2.5-1.5.

St. Louis vs. Chicago:

This is not the director's cut of this drawing, but for some reason, the scanner did not wish to scan the full page. My guess is that somehow, by accident, I turned on a "smart feature" that refuses to scan the whole £u¢king page, but instead produces various segments of it. It did manage to zero in on the scrambled words, evidently recognizing them as significant elements of the picture, so give it credit for that. It also produced a giant blowup of the gentleman on the right, but was apparently was less impressed with the importance of the lady on the left; never zeroing in on her and not even producing her in toto in this scan, which is the most complete one it was willing to do. Anyway, the jumble speaks for me, so I won't insult your intelligence by spelling it out any plainer.

Los Angeles vs. Seattle:

I picked one definite upset already today. I don't see why I should have to take all the risks. You can bet LA. My pride is on Seattle.

Week Seven, part one

2010-10-04T12:44:00.000-07:00

Carolina vs. New York:

Pride and joy and greed and chess; that's what makes this town the best. 3-1 New York.

Manhattan vs. Baltimore:

The second team in town will often name itself after a wider area, e.g. "New England Nor'easters", because they have to scrounge harder for fans. The Sauce have done it the other way, apparently going for quality of fan over quantity. But the upscale fan typically is more insistent that his team win, and Manhattan has not done much of that. But they realize this; I am simply explaining for the masses. I think they'll turn it around tonight, at least for a night. Manhattan by the breadth of a Hell's Kitchen spatula.

Miami vs. Dallas:

That's "ENDNOT", "ERICP" and "RIDEON". Miami by one.

San Francisco vs. Arizona:

I don't expect Arizona's mini-slide to become a maxi-slide. But it could become a midi-slide. My pick's the 'Nics, by the odd game.

Week Six, part two

2010-09-29T03:13:00.000-07:00

New England vs. St. Louis

So is this the biggest difference ever in average rating? Just because Nakamura and Shulman chose to do their patriotic duty and represent the ol' USA in Khanty-Mansiysk. Put on a white wig and go walk the "freedom trail", but if Samuel Adams were alive today, he'd be drinking Budweiser. I'll pick New England by two, though it tries my soul to do so.

Boston vs. San Francisco

Nothing wrong with a little regional pride, as long as the nation doesn't suffer. The East lost quite a bit on Monday but I think Boston will do their part to get some of it back. The Blitz, 2.5-1.5.

Seattle vs. New Jersey:

When you play a tournament game, do you write the opponent's title next to his name? I used to do it, but it's just so obsequious that I stopped. I'm pretty sure I scored better when I didn't. I'm not sure Seattle is hip to this bit of wisdom, though. New Jersey by a point.

Arizona vs. Baltimore:

Alright, this is probably the most contrived jumble since the Yangtze River one. But it works, I promise. I mean, the letters match up the way they're supposed to. One more for Baltimore.

Week Six, part one

2010-09-26T04:21:00.000-07:00

New York vs. Miami:

Miami needs it but New York wants it, and we're a country where luxury comes before necessity. New York by an artificial hair.

Dallas vs. Carolina:

I hadn't actually noticed that East and West have not faced each other this season. Now that I have, let me express my dismay at the mockery being made of tradition this week. Dallas by a circus peanut.

Philadelphia vs. Chicago:

Though Philadelphia as a team is -2 while Chicago is +2 on the season, Philly's particular lineup tonight has outperformed Chi's particular lineup. This is the kind of tidbit that the full-time professional has at his fingertips but a player moonlighting as a prognosticator is apt to overlook. Philly by one.

Los Angeles vs. Manhattan:

Isn't it? LA, by the length of a Lindsay Lohan sobriety jag.

ETA: Maybe I should omit the bars on the capital I's. The srambled words are IONPA, LABREW, NYBAD, NOBAIL.

Week Five, part two

2010-09-22T09:14:00.001-07:00

New Jersey vs. Boston:

I seems to recall a JB-Big Larry game in this league where Black was basically lost after about eight moves. I don't remember who was who but I think it was embarrassing enough for both of them that this game will quickly be steered into drawish channels. That leaves Boston with the odd White in the match which I think will garner them the minimum victory.

Baltimore vs. New York

Do we know that Lenderman was the soda can? Or was he the guy "You're So Vain" was about. In any case, the Knights should either fizz or gavot to victory. I'd reommened the latter. New York, 2.5 to whatever's left over.

Miami vs. Seattle:

Miami by a bottlenose.

San Francico vs. Los Angeles:

So will this rivalry take off? Can it ever be like the old days? I think San Franciso will push the new kids on the block around some. The 'Nics by a foul shot.

Week Five, part one

2010-09-20T04:43:00.000-07:00

New England vs. Philadelphia:

"Put the bone in", she begged him,
As she paced across the floor.
"Put the bone in", she yelled out once more.
"Put the bone in"

That's from the seldom-listened-to-even-then B side of Terry Jacks's "Seasons in the Sun". Almost as cool is the fact that Jacks once played in a group called "the Chessmen". But New England has never tasted the bitters of defeat and I don't think they are in a hurry to. NE, but not by many.

Carolina vs. Manhattan:

I was going to say that the symbolism favors Carolina, since a cobra squeezes and applesauce is squozen*. But really, "Applesauce" isn't going to win many symbolic battles. So dismissing that, the ratings favor Manhattan. The Sauce are boss. 2.5-1.5.

St. Louis vs. Dallas

But, why should she not. Dallas über alles, but especially St. Louis. But minimally.

Chicago vs. Arizona:

Putting the "foreign" in 4-0 since September 13, 2010. Arizona. By a point.

* Not favored by dictionaries, but more logical, to me, than "squeezed".

Week Four, part two

2010-09-15T14:32:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. New England:

Seriously, don't. New England by a point.

New Jersey vs. Carolina:

Just because I hate monotonous phrases, I thought about adopting a policy where a minimum margin is always implied unless specified otherwise. But that would increase the ignominy of the occasional 3-1 prediction, and I don't like to throw ignominy around. New Jersey, 3-1.

Los Angeles vs. Chicago:

I don't have anything particular in mind, but LA probably is the best team for jumble potential. If your name is a simple English word, then the puns are too transparent. I got rid of "Wolff" without too much guilt because I paired it with something else, but I still felt a little bit cheap. Anyway, that's why I like LA; for what they represent. Subscribe to the Vibe. 2.5-1.5.

San Francisco vs. Seattle:

Seattle needs it, which doesn't mean they'll get it, but I think they get it that they need it, as they've wheeled out not just the big guns but, who are just as important, the little guns. Seattle, but not by a slew.

Week Four, part one

2010-09-13T04:16:00.001-07:00

Manhattan vs. New York

Yes, you heard that right. Moving on...

So I finally got a scanner. Maybe I'll try to write darker next time but I have to rush now. Anyway, first of all, note the writing on the door to guess whose quarters this is. The guy on the left, imagine he's the coach or the captain, or something. He is saying "Your game. Play the Reti. Or maybe the English". And the guy on the right (who I'm sure you all recognize) responds, "That's just not _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _" . And New York by a point.

ETA: I notice the "_ _ _" thing wraps around. The answer is 11,3,2. Three words.

Philadelphia vs. Baltimore

Upset of the week. Ok, I guess I didn't pick one last week or probably the week before. Alright, upset of the MONTH then. Ok? Philadelphia by a schuylkill.

St. Louis vs. Miami

Well, we all remember the last time Nakamura faced Becerra here. Having studied chess psychology under my masters Krogius and Benko, I don't think Hikaru will give Julio the satisfaction of acting all crazy for revenge. He'll play one of those quiet things he sometimes does and the game will end in a draw. And then he'll act like that doesn't bother him. Meanwhile, Miami will score below to pull out the minimum victory. Ok, that's two upsets this week. You owe me one.

Dallas vs. Arizona

When I talk about an upset, I mean a for-real upset, not 2385 beating 2386. So I won't act like a hero for picking Dallas here. You still owe me just one. Dallas by a point (like on a star).

Week Three, part two

2010-09-08T01:30:00.000-07:00

New England vs. New Jersey:

I think New Jersey has the better chance of taking a lead on the top two boards and then the sibling rivalry below should be mutually beneficial. New Jersey by the snookiest of margins.

Manhattan vs. Boston

VANER
OO_O_

NAGEVE
OO_O_O

AMHER
OO_ _O

BENZAR
O_OO_O

HEVAL
O_ _OO

Blitz by bits.*

Dallas Destiny vs. St Louis:

When I raved in my season preview about how clever the St. Louis team name was, I don't think I even realized that they were following in the pattern of "St. Louis Cardinals". Being that clever, they surely ought to win this match. Granted, a cardinal outranks an archibishop, but since they don't play the same game that's not a big problem. St. Louis by a head of foam.

Chicago vs. San Francisco:

Tough call. Chicago is old enough to be a sentimental favorite, but not so old as to be the slobering kind. The Blaze by a flicker.

* I used the plural "bits" for the sake of the rhyme, but a one-point victory is still meant. I figure a "bit" is a small enough thing that even two bits don't add up to more than one point.

Week Three, part one

2010-09-07T10:53:00.000-07:00

New York vs. Philadelphia:

New York looks almost St. Louisan here. The difference is, these guys don't just look St. Louisan; they can play St. Louisan. The Knights by a sword's tip.

Baltimore vs. Carolina:

Tough luck for Carolina so far. I think it'll be close again this week but the reason upsets are upsets is that people don't expect them. Baltimore by the minimum.

Seattle vs. Miami:

I think Guo will have something positive to blog about this week. We'll see if he can handle more than tragedy. Seattle by a glove lace.

Arizona vs. Los Angeles:

IACALF
O_OOOO

CUTLOC
OO_OOO

REDMAY
_OOOOO

REICES
_OOOOO

All in a good cause. Arizona by a point.

Week Two, part two

2010-09-01T15:20:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. Philadelphia:

TUBLAR
O_ _O_O

CANTI
O_ _OO

LARAYS
OO_ _OO

ERMIN
_ _OOO

"_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _"

... sparking Boston to a one-point victory.

Baltimore vs. Manhattan:

I don't think Milman plays much outside the league which, while it shows admirable dedication to the league, nonetheless allows a certain amount of rust to develop. I think the tough and in-practice Larry Kaufman will hold off Milman and that Baltimore will break through on one of the other boards. Baltimore by a bird of prey's beak.

Chicago vs. St. Louis

As usual, it boils down to who beats Shulman. I believe that will be no one. St. Louis, 3-1.

Los Angeles vs. Dallas:

It's hard to intimidate with mere names these days, but if anyone can do it is LA. The Vibe by a Newton.

Week Two, part one

2010-08-30T00:08:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. New York:

I'm afraid that Gulko will soon forget how to play with Black, but I guess that is his problem, not New Jersey's. I expect Kacheishvili to hold and New York's advantage on the lower three boards to see them through to victory. New York by a minute*.

I don't think I noticed the Shen brothers before, or maybe the younger one was not yet 2200 last season. But I guess they are the youngest brother pair to make USCF master. If so, whose record did they break? Offhand, I guess the Whiteheads, but that seems too long ago. If we are counting sisters and foreigners, though, I guess the Polgars probably hold the sibling record.

Carolina vs. New England:

I try not to use the super-obvious puns in the jumbles, but I hate to waste them entirely. Look for the Nor'easters to breeze to victory. 3-1, New England.

Miami vs. San Francisco:

No Ruy for Becerra this week; at best he can hope for a Petroff. I expect Wolff to hold on board one and that SF will break through somewhere below. San Francisco by a heartbeat.

Arizona vs. Seattle

LAPIT
_OO_O

EATUGO
OO_O_O

NOGIT
OO_ _O

LORNMA
O_O_OO

"_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _"

The lazy bum ought to just get up, because the thrills won't wait. The Scorps by a nibble.

* I guess I can afford to explain once a season. "Team X by an anything" always means "by a point". I just don't like to say "point" all the time. It's like the "he said, she ejaculated, he vociferated" problem in dialogue but that can be dodged by just dispensing with it altogether.

Week One, part two

2010-08-23T18:47:00.000-07:00

Manhattan vs. Carolina

Giving time odds on two boards is an interesting psychological gambit by heavy dog Carolina. But to really play with Manhattan's heads, the Cobras need to give material odds and that is not within USCL rules. 3-1, Applesauce.

New England vs. Baltimore:

INOLIV
O_O_OO

LIEBUN
OOO_O_

GUJARA
_O_OOO

POPTIT
_O_OO_

"THE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - "

New England, 3-1.

San Francisco vs. Dallas:

If Naroditsky's cherubic appearance in his USCL pic is intimidating, there is a more recent one on his own site where he towers above the 3 and 3/4" King (to say nothing of the rest of the pieces). But even if you avoid intimidation, life is sometimes hard and so it seems to be to anyone facing the SF lineup. The 'Nics by a point at the buzzer.

Miami vs. Arizona:

I usually like Miami when it looks like Becerra will get to play a Ruy. This time, too. Miami, 2.5-1.5.

Week One, part one

2010-08-23T15:32:00.000-07:00

New York vs. Boston

I pick the defending champs to win this one but it does offend my sensibilities some for three newcomers to play in the opening match. Let them make the coffee runs for a couple of weeks while the heroes of 2009 bask in the limelight. New York, 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia vs. New Jersey

Each board here matches Youth vs. Experience, but New Jersey has put its experience on top and Philadelphia theirs at the bottom. My pick is based on the idea that professional players work harder to keep up to date, so you want your old guys to be GM’s. Also I am assuming that Finn is underrated somehow, even though his rating is not quite completely unchanged from 2009. Maybe he just played in the Amateur Team. New Jersey, 2.5-1.5.

St. Louis vs. Los Angeles:

NOTAIR
_O_O O O

COKEHY
O_O O_O

HUGTAN
O O_ _O O

"_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _"

St. Louis by a point.

Seattle vs. Chicago

It may be they way they are brought up on "touch move" in Chicago, but for whatever reason, a big edge for the Blaze here. Chicago, 3-1.

What's Gonna Happen

2010-08-21T22:21:00.001-07:00

The odds-obsessed league commisioner has asked me to include percentage chances of each team both to make the postseason and to win the whole thing, so those numbers appear at the end of each team's paragraph.

Eastern Division:

New York Knights:

This team looked strong last year, and won the title. This year, they look stronger, what with the way-underrated kids and top performer Alex Lenderman, whose vagabond shoes, longing to stray, have landed him in New York.

80%, 13%.

New Jersey Knockouts:

See below.

75%, 11%.

Boston Blitz:

See above.

70%, 9%.

Baltimore Kingfishers:

Since losing Pascal Charbonneau, who led the team to the inaugural USCL title in 2005, Baltimore has struggled quite a bit, despite fielding reasonable teams. This year’s version looks similar to recent ones, but Sasha Kaplan is some new blood, which can’t hurt. And if you underperform long enough, then you’re not really underperforming, and I believe Baltimore has in fact been underperforming, so I think that this season they will perform well enough to see the post-season.

54%, 7%.

New England Nor'easters:

The Northeast has traditionally suffered from an inferiority complex regarding severe weather, so it is gratifying to see the attempt to make “Nor’easters” sound as frightening as “Hurricanes”, “Cyclones”, or “Earthquakes”. New England’s strength is its flexible lineup, but I suspect the GGGg-style lineup has the edge over the balanced one, so I see NE finishing just outside the unpromised land. Bourneval has been one of the more prominent kibitzers in past seasons, so whether he can make the adjustment to player may be key.

51%, 5%.

Manhattan Applesauce:

I’ll grant that “Applesauce” has more relevance to Manhattan than “Pioneers” did to Queens, but I still don’t really get it. My best guess is that is meant to lull their opponents. If it were up to me, they’d be simply “the Manhattan” and use a cocktail glass as their logo. I suppose their players are more partial to vodka than to whiskey, though. Anyway, a strong enough roster, but it looks to me like too many of them wear suits all day and have to use too much of the chess part of their brains during the day to be able to handle a tough game at night.

46%, 4%.

Philadelphia Inventors:

Philadelphia can approach the rating limit with its roster but it needs its top two players playing to do so. History indicates that this is unlikely to be the case every week. Though the past is an imperfect predictor, the future hasn’t happened yet, so it’s all I’ve got.

23.7%, .98%.

Carolina Cobras:

As the only team in the East unable to approach the rating limit with any lineup, Carolina looks in for a long season. But if you like what you’re doing, that isn’t such a terrible thing, is it?

.3%, .02%.

Western Division:

Arizona Scorpions:

I was curious whether Arizona could use their top three plus Mateer, and it seems that they can, just barely. With the other underrated kids, they look pretty flexible, unless maybe they are still splitting between Phoenix and Tucson, because I don’t know who lives where. I’m sure they’ll work out some reasonable scheme, though. They ought to make it to the post-season.

75%, 11%.

San Francisco Mechanics:

Always a good team and they ought to prove so again. Tough guys on top, underrated guys on bottom, and better flexibility than most. Also, a number of pros or semi-pros who are probably up to date on the principles of the New Chess.

70%, 10%.

St. Louis Arch Bishops:

“St. Louis Arch Bishops” reminds me of those silly bar drinks that are invented for the sake of the name. But whereas “slow comfortable screw against the wall” simply takes up a small bit of menu space, this team is committed to playing ten weeks of four-hour matches. Of chess, no less! But they do have some quite good chessplayers, including two of the four recent US Championship finalists. Better still, judging from the Week One announced lineups, Shulman is even going to play this year! It feels almost like cheating to look at the posted lineups, but I really needed to know, with such an all-walks-of-life type of roster, whether St. Louis could field a normal and competitive lineup. And it seems they can.

60%, 9%.

Miami Sharks:

Another team that changes little from year to year, and yet another team that is using the September 2009 rating list (what is it about that list, anyway? The centerfold?). Anyway, though they lack a super-versatile roster, Miami does have a record of fielding a tough lineup each week, so I expect them to field tough enough to make it to the postseason.

55%, 5%.

Los Angeles Vibe:

First of all, I don’t see what “Vibe” has to do with chess, Los Angeles, or intimidation. But having said that I guess it is incumbent on me to suggest an improvement, so how about the “Bl0-0ds”, which covers all three? As for the team, they’ve got a good pair of underrated kids so if the top guys do ok, the team should do well.

45%, 5%.

Chicago Fire:

Though not as strong on paper as last year’s team looked on paper, the players on this team play, which makes up for a lot of paper. I don’t know much about Amanov other than nothing whatsoever, but I am guessing that his 2500 rating is more accurate than his 2400 one, what with his GM title and all.

40%, 4%.

Dallas Destiny:

Though a youngy, collegeish team, Dallas is sadly lacking in vastly underrated players, which seem almost a necessity in these tough times.

30%, 3%.

Seattle Sluggers:

It is hard to replace a guy like Nakamura but you can’t complain about Akobian. That is, though, contingent on his playing and I see he is missing from the Week One lineup. Again, I know it’s cheating to look but there is no Good Conduct medal for USCL predictors.

25%, 3%.

Oh yeah. It is a pet theory of mine that when you fall just short one season, you are a big threat to win the following season, but if you don’t win then either, self-doubt sets in and a shake-up is probably necessary before you win the whole thing. Makes me kinda hope New Jersey does win, because I’d hate to have to be the one to tell Benjamin or Gulko, “sorry, a shake-up is necessary. You’re off the team”. But that is why I favor Jersey over Boston: because they have just missed only once.

Miami-New York: The brawl for it all

2009-11-28T23:45:00.000-08:00

Monday, December 7

First, let us take a moment to remember Arizona.

Second, this match. On board one, we can expect a Caro-Kann. Becerra has not faced the Caro in the USCL, but since he is a classicalist I imagine he plays either 3. Nc3 or Nd2.

Charbonneau always opens with the king’s pawn, which none of Lugo’s USCL opponents have done since 2006. Who were they all trying to impress, I wonder. I can just see them lifting their little pinkies in the air as they delicately slid their pawns forward to d4. There won’t be any of that here, as Charbonneau is a reliable king pawn player, and Lugo normally meets 1. e4 with …e5. With the economy the way it is, they are smoking fifties on Wall Street this year, so I’d expect Charbonneau to be looking for extra thrills on the chessboard. Maybe an Evans or some such.

A Sicilian seems likely on board three. But with only one match going and for the championship, no less, I’d recommend that the spectator follow every game regardless of what opening.

Norowitz is the biggest advocate of the Stonewall since the Nixon White House. Rodriguez usually defends 1. d4 Nf6 and then tries something sharp, so probably neither player will get what he wants, at least, not in the opening.

The beginner thinks no further ahead than the next move. The experienced player keeps the endgame in mind from the start. The truly thoughtful look all the way to the blitz playoff that would follow a drawn match. Blitz generally is a young man’s game, and blitz immediately after a grueling slow game ought to be even more favorable to youth. New York has the younger squad, so I think Miami ought to press a bit harder to avoid overtime. Increasing the contempt factor by two-tenths of a pawn sounds about right. Still, I expect New York to take it in regulation by a midnight whisker.

RODUP
_OOO_

RINGO
_OOO_

MEGAN
_ _OO_

NEEDSIT
_ _O_ _O_

THE "_ _ _ _'_ _ _ _ _ _' "

The Sheppard is my Lord

2009-11-26T20:40:00.000-08:00

What with the longer-than-the-Soccer-War-the-War-of-the-Stray-Dog-and-the-War-of-the-Cricket-Match-combined break before the championship match, I have decided to expand my horizons a bit while hopefully keeping my skills in shape while not entirely neglecting New York and Miami.

It is easy to forget that beyond the narrow confines of the sixty-four squares, there is a whole wide wonderful world of computers, printers, and pairing sheets. It was in just this world that I was luxuriating last January when I saw, a few feet away, a twelvish kid brandish a rolled-up vinyl chessboard, then suddenly turn the rolled-up board to point at an age-mate and scream* “say hello to my little friend”. But long before twelve-year-old kids were playing with chessboards to pretend to be gangsters from twenty-five-year-old movies, grown men were playing with chessboards to fantasize about playing baseball.

These days, at Steve Immitt’s big January scholastic tournament at the New Yorker Hotel, there is a team room (where kids/coaches/parents chill/eat/make noise) less than ten feet from the directors’ room. There is even a secret back entrance to this latter room for the savvier among those unable to talk their way past the door guard into the sanctum sanctorum**. But back in the Twentieth Century (where I come from), this tournament was held downtown at the Borough of Manhattan Community College***, near the World Trade Center. There, the directors’ room could only be reached by walking down a long hallway, too cold for those without a director’s T-shirt to brave; too dark for those without director’s infra-red glasses to navigate. In a room this private, even a big, burly, thirty-five-year-old ex-New York Yankee could indulge himself in a little audible daydreaming. Joe Ausanio, former relief pitcher and then assistant tournament director, picked up a rolled-up vinyl chessboard and intoned, in a deep staccato, “now-bat-ting-for-the-Yang-keezz, num-ber-Fif-ty-Fouurrr, …..”. If you have ever watched the Yankees (or their opponents, for you haters), I’m sure you hear the voice of the great Bob Sheppard, who announced today that he retired two years ago. Nice career, Bob. Good luck in the rest of your life.

* “Scream” rather overstates it but I wanted to avoid the awkwardness of “say ‘say’”.

** That's "sanCtorum". Get your mind out of the gutter.

*** A fierce chess rival of UMBC (albeit without the cool theme song) in the halcyon days when “Dallas” was just an old TV show, or at most a Debbie-doer.

Division Finals

2009-11-15T20:16:00.000-08:00

Monday, November 16:

San Francisco vs. Miami

IMEANT
_OO_O_

ELTENS
O_O_ _O

SPURMU
_OOO_ _

GORUT
_OO_O

HESIN
O_ _ _O

"_ _ _ _ _ _ _. _." _ _ _ _ _ _

...leading to a San Francisco victory, 2.5-1.5.

Wednesday, November 18

New Jersey vs. New York

Sometimes, when you write about nothing week after week, you have to take a little break, to recharge the old batteries. So this week I will try writing about something.

It has been suggested on a couple of blogs that draw odds is too great an advantage to give the higher seed in these playoff matches, though there still should be some reward for season-long achievement. A well-known Holland-born 6’5 IM and former co-editor of a chess magazine, connected with a USCL team in the Southwest, for instance, suggests giving the top seed choice of color in the Armageddon game. Now this is not exactly nothing, but I am not sure if it is a bigger edge than getting the lane nearer the equator (with its subsequently weaker gravitational pull) in a high hurdles race. A postseason series in pro basketball or hockey offers home court or ice in the odd game, which is a little bit more, but still seems pretty scant reward for having outperformed the other side by twenty games in the regular season. But those leagues make lots of money, so fairness does not have to rate high among their concerns. And I’ll grant that I always root for 2-2 in the championship match here because that elimination blitz thing they do is fun fun. But trying to make the postseason more exciting always carries the danger of making the regular season (which is most of the season, after all) less. So if a 5-5 team needs to actually defeat an 8-2 team to advance, then so be it, I say. We want a chess champion, not a cheese champion.

On to the match. Looking at the lineups reminds me of another difference between pro sports leagues and the USCL. There, a team can be counted on to field their strongest lineup for the biggest games. In fact, in baseball, what with the greater number of rest days allowing a team to go with fewer starting pitchers, they effectively can go with an even stronger lineup than their strongest. I take it that Gulko (the perfect) was unavailable to play this Wednesday. Even so, Finn seems, from all I know (based entirely on his three league games) to be considerably underrated. I think therefore that New Jersey will manage the 2-2 they need to advance.

P.S. I also look forward to the day when someone can write about chess without feeling the need to make endless sports analogies.

Division Semifinals, part two

2009-11-10T23:32:00.000-08:00

Miami vs. Seattle:

HERMY
O_ _ _O

USEED
O_ _ _O

IPERK
O_ _OO

YESPRO
_O_ _OO

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ !

So I pick Seattle, despite Roman's Marache-Morphy-like win vs. Adamson last week. And nothing salacious is intended by the oversized pieces in the drawing; proportion is just something I struggle with.

Arizona vs. San Francisco:

San Francisco's lineup features some pretty serious youth but do note that the eldest are on top. Were this not so I might worry for the team's spirit. As is, though, with everyone in his proper place, I worry only for whoever has to play the 12-year old with the 2385 performance rating. The Nics need only a tie to advance but I pick them to win outright.

Division Semifinals, part one

2009-11-08T17:16:00.000-08:00

New York vs. Boston

A serious match calls for a serious analysis. For New York to advance, they have to win, and to expect that, I have to find a serious New York edge somewhere. Board Four is a natural place to look but Krasik, despite his non-master status, has played at a 2300+ level this season. He is well past the age where it is possible to improve, so there must be another reason. Maybe all his talk inspires him to live up to it more than it does his opponents to make him eat it. Whatever, I don't see enough to pick NY to overcome the draw odds. 2-2 Boston.

New Jersey vs. Baltimore

NOGUY
OO_OO

POORUS
O_O_O_

HOGRUT
_O_OO_

PINGLY
O_OOO_

AN '_ _ _ _ _ '_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

And I agree. A right result for New Jersey.

P.S. What's up with this underlining? I didn't mean for that to be there.

Week Ten

2009-11-04T13:07:00.000-08:00

Most of the teams playing tonight, playoff-bound or not, are not competing for
much tonight so I don't think it really fair if I have to. Just something to keep in mind.

Boston vs. New York

NERDO
_ _ _OO

AVEST
O_ _OO

ASCREE
O_O_O_

REACNE
_O_O_O

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Therefore? Well I think Evan learned from the soda can. New York.

Philadelphia vs. Carolina:

I'm sure Philadelphia was hoping to see a GM or two play for Tennessee tonight, but they themselves are fielding well below their strongest lineup. GMs look nice on a roster, but if you are assembling a team, make sure to find out first if they are hardcore baseball fans who would never miss a World Series game just to play chess. But the Philly lineup obviously like to play chess, so that ought to be worth something. Philadelphia.

New Jersey vs. Queens

Everything is close here but the teams' records. I think Queens would like to salvage something from the season but if not they, then I would. Queens by a nose in a driving finish.

Tennessee vs. Baltimore:

Baltimore needs it, but do they want it? Well, yeah, I suppose they do. Why wouldn't they? Baltimore.

San Francisco vs. Dallas

Most dictionaries or word processors I have seen do not recognize "chessplayer" as one word. But it feels silly in a chess blog to write "chess player". This feels like something I've said already but my web search does not turn it up so I'll continue and if you've heard this before, then please skip to the next match. "Chess player" sounds like something an overenunciating kid in a "Peanuts" TV special would say. Anyway, a well-known New York City chessplayer once said "if I go, I'm taking someone with me". The quote was even immortalized as the name of one of Steve Immitt's insanity tournaments. Dallas is the two-time defending champ but after this match, they are going, at least until next season. I'm betting they will take someone with them. Dallas to win.

Seattle vs. Chicago

Shulman is never going to break Cal Ripken's ironman streak at this rate. But who needs iron when you've got the mortar man? I say Chicago brings Seattle down to earth, or even a few feet below.

Miami vs. Arizona

In Boston-New York, it doesn't really matter who wins. Here, it is clear that it matters but not so clear what result would be most helpful to who. Probably both teams will fall back on native instinct and try to win. Boards two and four look lopsided, but Mateer did pull a big upset last week. Still, save the "has been rated as high as" defenses for people my age. Much will depend on whether we see the Becerra of old, or the old Becerra. I think the former. Miami.

Week Nine, part two

2009-10-28T14:29:00.000-07:00

I have postponed even thinking about these matches until an hour and a half before game time, as part of my new disciplined approach to life. The next step is to find something useful to do while I am avoiding this. Maybe next week.

Philadelphia vs. New Jersey:

Kudrin must be thirsting for revenge on the whole world but especially Benjamin. I say he gets it. Shahade kind of has to win for my upset special to work. But why shouldn't she? Back when pitchers used to go nine innings sometimes, people won with black sometimes. Philly by the length of Geno's low-fat menu.

New York vs. Baltimore:

I heard that Kacheishvili's wife was having a baby last time, so congrats and congrats and I hope you play better this week. New York by the breadth of Bloomberg's humility.

Boston vs. Miami:

I pick Boston to lose, but not to be shut out. The Sharks by the length of a Miami winter.

Seattle vs. Arizona

HALFS
OOOO_

AVETO
OOO_O

LEVHAS
_OOOO_

LOARCH
O_ _OOO

_ _ _ _ _ WAS _ _ _ _ _ _ _ HIS _ _ _ _

Seattle, 3-1.

Week Nine, part one

2009-10-25T23:27:00.001-07:00

Queens vs. Carolina:

In baseball, no one could care any less about a late-season game betwen two teams not going anywhere. But in chess, we know that each time we sit down to watch, we may witness the creation of a masterpiece that will be talked about long after Dempsey-Firpo, Ali-Foreman and Andrew-Krasik have been forgotten. I pick Queens to squeeze out the odd Botticelli.

Dallas vs. Chicago

I figured this should be the jumble match so I had to wait till last minute to allow for more lineup changes.

FEDHIS
_ _OOO_

ICYMOP
OOO_ _ _

ISKEN
O_O_ _

AMOLD
O_OO_

_ _ _ _ _ _/_ _ _/_ _

So Chicago by a pizza crust.

San Francisco vs. Tennessee:

If you want to pull off a big upset, the first thing is to make sure you are outrated by as as much as possible. SO far so good. But I don't think the necessary intangibles are present tonight. SF by three lengths.

Week Eight

2009-10-19T02:25:00.000-07:00

First, a note on winning margins: "vanishing neck", though its quality is recognized, does grow weaker with use, and things like "stroke", "wicket" and "point after touchdown" might even break the first time. So unless a specific other score is expressly given, 2.5-1.5 is always implied.

Monday, October 19:

New Jersey vs. Boston

USSR co-champion, USA champ, plus score vs. Kasparov, and now Board One in a USCL match. It's been some career for Boris Gulko. With all that, he can't really begrudge Boston a match victory. Boston.

Dallas vs. Miami:

It's hard to figure what to make of the various time odds in this match what with the increments added each move. I propose simple material odds in the future. In my own long career, I was fortunate in catching the latter days of the sealed move era but even I missed out on material odds, announcing checkmates, "gardez le dame" and abandoning games due to the lateness of the hour. That aside, my impression is that Miami has a lot of experience with time odds so I give them the edge here. Miami.

Chicago vs. Arizona

Arizona, because I don't need attention.

Wednesday, October 21:

New York vs. Carolina:

BERUM
_ _O_O

OLDEY
O_ _OO

NOARCH
O_ _ _ _O

DEVAIN
_ _ _OO_

...HE COULD NOT _ _ _ _ /"_ _ _ _ _"

(as usual, I need the slash to maintain the space. Also, I know this is contradicted by history but I don't want to be obvious about everything) New York.

Philadelphia vs. Baltimore

Shahade is making her season debut but Defibaugh is newer to me. I looked it (the name) up and found that it is an "Americanization" of something. Must have been pretty foreign before, eh? Actually, it apparently comes from "Dieffenbach", which must be either a custom-lobotomized version of Crafty, or German, and the Germans have been in this country long enough for Benjamin Franklin to...remark upon their qualities. But that's neither here nor there (note to that comic guy: no real person ever said "good to be hither"; it is ungrammatical and always has been). What is here and there, though, is that the Franklins hold the key to this match in their bifocals and you can put that in your stove and print it. Philadelphia.

San Francisco vs. Queens:

This match features the return of the immigrant to his second home. I think Queens will celebrate with a win, but in any case they will celebrate. Queens.

Tennessee vs. Seattle:

It is tough, I am sure, being from Tennessee and constantly ridiculed as a diverse bunch of cosmopolites, but I do think the hootenanny misses something without the balalaikas. Seattle, 3-1.

Week Seven, part two

2009-10-14T02:37:00.000-07:00

Though Monday night's match results did not do much for my batting average, they did at least remove the pressure of picking an "upset of the week", because that has already happened.

Boston vs. Queens:

I admit that I may have picked against Queens in the past because of the old rivalry between Queens and the Bronx over which is the lamest outer borough besides Staten Island (which doesn't really count). This week, though, it's because Boston is just better. The Blitz by a stroke.

Baltimore vs. New Jersey:

If you ever looked at this listing of old Soviet club championships, you were probably confused by the absence of the 1974 Spartak club championship. The results were suppressed because Kapengut and Nukhim Rashkovsky outscored Tigran Petrosian! Well, consider it suppressed no longer. Meanwhile, Geocities is about to experience some suppression of its own. How is that for poetic justice? The only thing that could make life better would be if Nukhim were on the team instead because that'd be some explosive Jumble material. New Jersey by a length.

Chicago vs. Tennessee

Tennessee may think they are only hurting themselves by underperforming but they are hurting me as well. STOP IT. The Tempo by one ply.

Seattle vs. Miami

Seattle, not because of the revenge factor but just because they are stronger. Next time, it'll be the revenge factor. The Sluggers by majority decision.

Arizona vs. San Francisco:

HANES
OO_OO

NOACT
O_OO_

BIICON
OOOO_O

OARHIM
OOO_OO

"_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _"/ _ _ _ _ _ _

(the slash is to make the separation clear)

And Arizona by a wicket.

Week Seven, part one

2009-10-10T22:37:00.000-07:00

It was a dark and stormy night; the rain fell in torrents--except at occasional intervals, when it was checked by a violent gust of wind which swept up the Henry Hudson Parkway (for it is in New York City that our scene lies), rattling along the housetops, and fiercely agitating the scanty flame of the lamps that struggled against the darkness. Soon my mother's old Buick began to stall, and we were stranded somewhere around 130th Street hoping for help to arrive, or at least, nothing at all to happen.

Help arrived, we were towed to a side street and somehow eventually got to the Hell's Kitchen hotel just in time for me to avoid a first-round forfeit. I went on to beat the lower-rated blind guy, and then to share first place in the U1600 tourney for a prize of $2250. Meanwhile, in the concurrent NYC championship, Lev Alburt, Vitaly Zaltsman, Joel Benjamin et al. were fighting it out over nine days for $500. I felt like a kid at Woodrow Roosevelt High School, where the Joker had rigged the milk machine to dispense silver dollars (only where was Susie?). "Kid, there is no easy life in chess" advised the Hoffmann. Was he right? In Chou En-Lai's words, it is too soon to tell. In any case, thanks for the ride, Mom. And a million other things, but this is a chess blog and I'm not much of a memoirist. RIP. New York and Dallas, 3-1.

Week Six

2009-10-04T23:46:00.000-07:00

Before getting to this week's matches, I'd like to report that I got to make a risqué pun Sunday morning (and what did you accomplish?). I had rested my newspaper on the counter of the local coffee place while awaiting my order, and the girl behind it read the headline about how David Letterman had profaned the Ed Sullivan Theater with a "secret bedroom" that he sometimes shared with attractive young female employees. I was mildly surprised at her expression of disapproval, because firstly who cares, and secondly she is foreign-born and not always up on every aspect of basic American pop culture. So I asked, "disappointed?" and she said, yes, but supposed that it was just "a guy thing" (she does have the American idiom down). The middle-aged (i.e., older than me) woman on the customer side of the counter agreed, saying "it's in their genes", to which I replied "if only we could keep it there". Note that this pun would not have worked online due to the spelling difference. I guess real life still has its uses.

Monday, October 5:

New York vs. Baltimore:

If you've been paying attention lately, you'd have noticed that New York not only wins, but they win in ways that Keres, Smyslov, and Chess Challenger 7 could only dream of. I pick them to win here, 2.5-1.5, but only incidentally, as a means to a higher end.

Chicago vs. Philadelphia:

I don't want to overdramatize, so I'll say simply that nonstandard times call for nonstandard measures. Both teams desperately (oops, drama. Sorry!) need this match but Chicago went with a conventional kind of shakeup, where you add a grandmaster to the lineup, while Philly is trying something a bit off the beaten path. What, there's an elephant in this room? All right, even God had to rest after six days, and his were a lot more successful than Kudrin's first five. So Alex just did what Mike had to do, or vice-versa. Will it work? I say...yeah. 2.5.-1.5, Philly.

Arizona vs. New Jersey:

This is a rare opportunity to pick New Jersey to lose, so I have to take it. Nothing personal but they think the Statue of Liberty should belong to them yet you never hear them say anything about Staten Island. Arizona, 2.5-1.5.

Wednesday, October 7:

Carolina vs. Boston:

I had not heard of Anya Corke before but her Wikipedia page informs me that she is the top player from Hong Kong who is currently playing for England. And as you know, that is saying something (only...what?). Boston, 3-1.

Tennessee vs. Dallas:

I know it is generally fallacious to think that somebody losing last week is now "due" to win and therefore a better bet than he'd have been had he won. Again, though, "generally". I think Shabalov is the exception and he really will bear down this time and no fooling around. Last week, a certain grandmaster in the audience referred to three consecutive moves of Shaba's as "fishy" and "crazy" and "weak". I was tempted to say "oh, my!", but restrained myself. On a chess-related note, I was hoping that Mikhailuk in that game, rather than the simple recapture on move 44 (which did win a few moves later), would play ...Rxd1+ 45. Kxd1 Kxb6 46. Bd8+ Ka6 47. Bxa5 Kxa5 and Black promotes. But win first, please me second. Back to this week's match, Tennessee 2.5-1.5.

San Francisco vs. Miami:

YOFAR
O_ _O_

IWANT
_O_O_

NOCALF
O_O_O_

REDINK
OO_ _ _O

"_ _ _ _ _ 'n' _ _ _ _ _"

(But...will he get his wish? I don't know...San Fran, 2.5-1.5)

Queens vs. Seattle:

I'm tired of always having to write "2.5-1.5" but unless I want to pick a tie (and if playing a tie is like kissing your sister, then predicting a tie is like daydreaming about it), then I kind of have to most of the time, because it takes a big superiority before 3-1 is likely and that gives me room to be really, really, wrong. So I'm going to start using different phrases to indicate a close match and trust that the reader is smart enough to get my meaning. Seattle by a vanishing neck.

Week Five, part two

2009-09-30T03:56:00.000-07:00

Philadelphia vs. Queens:

I'm going to guess that this is the closest matchup in USCL history in terms of average rating difference on each board. Will Kudrin get off the schneid, where it is so comfortable? Will I have to solve my own jumble? I will say that it is cool the way Greg always writes "'releases' his latest jumble", rather than "posts". "Releases" evokes an expectant crowd, such as the ones that used to line up/camp out in front of the record store in order to buy the long-awaited next album by the hot group at the earliest opportunity. "Posts", in contrast, suggests another guy with too much time on his hands.

Anyway, too close to call really. So I'll pick Queens, because I live closer to them, which means they live closer to me. Queens, 2.5-1.5.

New Jersey vs. Chicago:

Make new friends, share a few laughs along the way, and win, lose, or draw, be sure to enjoy the game. New Jersey, 3-1.

New York vs. San Francisco:

They're both pretty good. Too bad they have to play each other. At chess, no less. I'll pick New York because it's good for chess when they win. New York, 2.5-1.5.

Arizona vs. Dallas

GARPS
_ _OO_

MOBIL
O_ _OO

IDREAM
OOO_ _ _

NETLAG
_OO_ _O

Arizona's fans need not have feared, because.......

"_ _ _ _ _ _ _" was "_ _ _ _ "

Arizona, 2.5-1.5.

Seattle vs. Tennessee:

Strong lineup for Tennessee but how will they react to a last-minute lineup switch that leaves them facing Nakamura? I expect they are ready for it. Tennessee, 2.5-1.5.

Week Five, part one

2009-09-28T15:34:00.000-07:00

Baltimore vs. Boston

Not much to choose from as far as records, momentum, and incentive so I'll cast the forecasters crutches aside and let pure insight be my guide. Boston is rated slightly higher. Boston, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs. Carolina

IBONG
OO_ _ _

ASTHY
_OOO_

OUTNAG
O_ _OO_

ALEBUB
O_ _ _OO

Answer: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ THE "_ _ _ _"

But that isn't easy. Miami, 2.5-1.5

Week Four, part two

2009-09-23T13:55:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. New York

It's no fun if New Jersey wins. Well maybe it is, assuming they are safe enough for the postseason anyway, and a record-setting regular season could heighten playoff fever later. So alright, I guess that's ok. We'll have NJ win this one, 2.5-1.5.

Carolina vs. Queens

OHSAC
OO_ _ _

MILFY
OO_ _ _

NOSEMI
_ _O_OO

OLDFIR
O_O_ _O

Coach Jones' top priority was to get his team...

_ _ _ THE _ _ _ _ _ _ _ *

Boston vs. Philadelphia:

Kudrin scored with the Dragon last time, as Jorge got all pinned and shit. But he knows better now. And there's a fair rating edge on 4. Boston by a point.

Dallas vs. Seattle:

Seattle has the champion of the whole USA playing for them. That's about a one-in-75 million probability, the way I figure. That's pretty cool, isn't it. I think so. Seattle, 2.5-1.5

*But maybe not just yet. Queens, 3-1.

Week Four, part one

2009-09-19T15:08:00.000-07:00

Miami vs. Tennessee:

HAL-le BER-ry. Miami, 2.5-1.5.

Baltimore vs. Arizona:

The war's begun, Alvin Tostig has a son today and he shall be Levon and he shall be a good man. Plus the usual Mountain Time edge. Arizona, 2.5-1.5.

Chicago vs. San Francisco:

If you think the Game of the Week bunch is mesmerized by titles, my eyelids are getting heavy just looking at San Francisco's lineup. Which brings me to my next topic (and the Nics by a point)........

Of all the talents that I lack, the one I most envy in those who possess it is the ability to accomplish things while asleep. I can't count the number of times I've been working on some problem or other, gone to bed in high hope the solution would come to me in my sleep, only to wake up as clueless as ever.

Some people, though, seem to have the knack. Elias Howe came up with the idea that made his sewing machine work in a dream. Coleridge scribbled down "Kubla Khan" directly upon waking from a dream (albeit an opium-fueled one). Paul McCartney woke up one morning with the tune that became "Yesterday" in his head.

In chess, David Bronstein came up with an opening novelty in his sleep that was a smashing success in its oneiric debut. Karpov once dreamt of a strong line for his opponent from an adjourned position and so was able to study it some before resuming the game.

I often have dreams in which I am playing chess but generally there is something very improbable about the game. Very often, I somehow am playing Black in a game where I had been White a few moments earlier. In one recent dream, there were clams on the board where one would normally expect pawns. However, last night I played a game that made more sense than any other game I remember dreaming and since it is the only game I have played in a while I thought I'd share it here. I am playing White and my opponent is Larry Christiansen.

1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 e6 3.c3 d5 4.e5 d4

The move order may have been different, but this is where we were after four moves. Now I played something like Qb3 and a friend who was reading an openings book told me that Leonid Stein called my move "lackluster", and I can't really argue with him. I don't remember if my friend then told me the right move or if I figured it out myself, but I think it was the latter.

5. Qc2!

To appreciate the strength of this move, you have to understand that White's h-pawn is suddenly off the board and so is Black's f-pawn, and Black's e- and d- pawns are somehow back on their original squares (see diagram).

On ...Nh6, 6.Bd3 is pretty crushing. I don't know if I saw this at the time but I assume that Stein did.

5....g6 6.Rxh7 Rxh7 7.Qxg6+ Rf7 8.e6! dxe 9.Ne5! Nh6 10.d4

...and Black will be defenseless after ...Nd7 (or ...Nc6) 11. Bb5, which I would certainly have played if I had stayed asleep any longer.

So don't give up on your dreams. One of these nights, you might get lucky.

Week Three

2009-09-14T06:07:00.000-07:00

Dallas vs. Boston:

It turns out that if you lean over and look at the side on this computer, there are various outlets and drives, and one of them accommodates a mouse. So I had the use of a mouse this week and was able to go all Raphael.

ABSMA
O_ _ _O

NOGAY
_OO_O

NOYELL
_OOO_ _

NOTEDS
OO_ _O_

THE MIGHTY _ _ _ _/_ _ _ _/ _ _ _ DEEP

(Dallas, 2.5-1.5)

Queens vs. New York:

There hasn't been a more dependable Stonewall since the 18th North Carolina emptied their rifles on the Old Mountain Road in Chancellorsville. New York, 2.5-1.5. Yeeeeee-haw!

Baltimore vs. Philadelphia:

If David Zwerling of Portland, Oregon, followed the USCL, he wouldn't have had to write "Parade" magazine to ask "are there any women chess masters?" But though he would then have saved himself a stamp, "Walter Scott" might not have felt he was really earning his $300,000 a year, so maybe it's for the best after all.

As for this match, I don't like to talk about teams that are "due", so I won't. But come on, Philly can't really lose again*. 2.5-1.5, Inventors.

Tennessee vs. Chicago:

Break up the Tempo. Or change it, if that works better. Either way they are making a mockery of the competitive balance this league was supposedly built on. Meanwhile, my job is easier, so there's some silver lining. Tennessee, 2.5-1.5

Miami vs. San Francisco:

I see the Mechanics putting their grip on the match and dealing the Sharks their first losing session. Frisco (yes I'm not a native. I think it sounds cool), 2.5-1.5.

Arizona vs. Seattle:

Assuming Hikaru is over the most famous cold since Napoleon's at Borodino, Seattle looks a comfortable favorite. Scorpions get slugged, 2.5-1.5.

*. can they?

Week Two, part two

2009-09-09T17:40:00.000-07:00

Please don't link to this until there is more here. I'm just putting this up for the record and will edit it later. My picks won't change, though, they are Chicago SF Boston and Arizona by the same 2.5-1.5. I know the round has started, but I relayed them to Greg earlier through a third party, I hope, just to avert a scandal such as when Howard Cosell said "I think (Mr. X) probably won (Olympic boxing match) 3-2" but we'll see", just after he, along with the whole world watching on television, heard the ringside judge announce just that into a microphone.

Week Two, part one

2009-09-08T15:11:00.000-07:00

I've decided to do a quick (albeit last-minute) jumble today because the other thing I thought maybe I'd do I think probably I won't, at least not right now.

SOICK
_OO_ _

ICTAC
_OO_O

OUREVE
_ _ _OO_

IPARTY
O_O_ _O

Why was the captain worried? It was.....

A _ _ _ _ / _ _ _ _ _ _

(The slash simply marks the space between words)

Philly, Baltimore, Seattle. Philly by two, the others by one.

Week One, part two

2009-09-02T14:58:00.000-07:00

First of all, I apologize that the art this week does not meet the high standards you have come to expect. I am drawing with a touchpad mouse, as I could not figure out how to upload from etch-a-sketch. Also the well is running dry but I figured I'd do a jumble this week at least since all the matches look kind of lopsided and I don't feel I should have to be different just for the sake of being different. Leave that to the wannabes still trying to make a name. I pick all the rating favorites (New York, Baltimore, Philly, Arizona) to win by the same 2.5-1.5 score.

KLEAN
OOO_ _

HABET
O_O_ _

LETCHO
_ _ _OOO

KISTME
_ _O_OO

Cobra fans feared for their player's sanity seeing him try to handle.......

THE "_ _ _ _ _ _ _" _ _ _ _

Week One, part one

2009-08-30T21:26:00.000-07:00

Queens vs. Boston:

Can they do that? Boston, 3-1.

Miami vs. Dallas:

Miami needs a quick start, before the late nights start to take their toll. A bit of time odds helps. Miami, 2.5-1.5.

San Francisco vs. Seattle:

I can't totally ignore my season's predictions. I meant what I said and I said what I meant. Word is life. Seattle, 2.5-1.5.

Extended Forecast

2009-08-30T16:42:00.000-07:00

First, thanks to Arun Sharma for doing the work of figuring out the best legal lineups for each team, which makes determining everyone's order a mere formality.

Eastern Division:

Philadelphia Inventors

Philadelphia’s best lineup looks very strong indeed but they look formidable enough with any of the top four lineups. Flexibility is key, especially in the regular season, so I expect to see them place high.

New York Knights

First, please note that Fedorowicz and Norowitz together creates a great opportunity for a budding chess poet. As Norowitz seems likely to man board three very often, much will depend on how well the other teams keep abreast of the latest theoretical developments in the Stonewall attack.

Queens Pioneers

I seem to remember reading that Queens was going to call itself the “Entourage” this year, perhaps in reference to the fact that they are without their star of last season and are left with flunkies and hangers-on. Still, consider how well Ed McMahon did for himself, even after Carson retired.

Baltimore Kingfishers

Looks like a solid team, with a variety of reasonable lineups. I guess they'll be right there. But where will there be?

Boston Blitz

Compared to most teams, Boston seems to have fewer notable defections either to or from. Good for the fans who get attached to their favorites. Bad for me, though, as it makes it hard to say anything new. But I'll try, let's see.....when you just miss, it's natural to believe that next season will be yours. But when you just miss again, your confidence gets shaken; you start to wonder if you ever can put it all together. I wish I had the luxury of waiting to see their first post-match video to gauge how much of the old confidence remains. As is, I suppose it is in tatters.

New Jersey Knockouts

Potentially a very strong team, but less flexible than many, as they need the Benjamin-Gulko tandem to really frighten. I seem to recall Gulko taking rather a light schedule last season. I think he needs to schedule a few more lessons this year. I have a feeling he won't, though.

Carolina Cobras

If there's anything more annoying than one more Yankee in Carolina, it's one less Yankee in Carolina. Or, be careful what you wish for; you just might get it. IM Jonathan Schroer, strong player, Zaikov, Simpson, Jones et al. will need to be overachievers (pride optional).

Western Division:

Dallas Destiny

There must be a reason for Dallas’s back-to-back (usage note: “straight” begins with three) titles, because they happened, and nothing happens without a reason. Maybe attending the same school, or being all about the same age, means more team spirit. Or maybe the prospect of BMOC-hood is extra incentive. Or maybe they all play chess well. Or maybe there is nothing else to do in Dallas so they are always able to field a strong lineup. In any case, I expect them to do well again.

Seattle Sluggers

The team looks pretty strong with either one GM or two playing. They're kind of old, I guess. Even Hikaru is past the first bloom of youth.

San Francisco Mechanics

I notice that Liou figures in all San Francisco’s best lineups. In fact, it looks hard for them to field a legal lineup that does not include him. So it seems safe to say that SF’s fortunes will be awfully dependent on his performance. I hate to put such pressure on a kid’s shoulder. But maybe some kind person will put equal pressure on his other shoulder.

Chicago Blaze

Arun’s #2 lineup looked better to me than the #1. But that can’t be, as the #1 counts Shulman as 2590. So they look pretty tough. They probably don't study together, but I assume at least that no one is driving 100+ miles to the match site.

Miami Sharks:

Becerra seems to play every week, so they should be ok if that continues. But there is always the chance that it won't. And staying awake at an hour when their West coast opponents are just waking up could be a challenge.

Tennessee Tempo

Last year, Tennessee needed Ehlvest in the lineup each week to avoid giving significant rating odds. With Shabalov added to the roster, that is no longer so. But…will either of them drive all the way down by himself, or must the lineup always include either both or neither? And where are they coming from? Do chess players actually live anywhere? The questions are obvious, the answers less so.

Arizona Scorpions

I've been trying to figure out what makes teams do well in this league, apart from high average rating. San Francisco has done well with young hardcore types who study together a lot, while Dallas has won twice with UTD-based teams which I presume also study together a lot. Arizona, I understand, counts on eating together at various restaurants to build team spirit. I'm not sure this is the ticket to success.

Postseason:

I hope no one is seriously expecting, months in advance, a board-by-board breakdown of matches that are unlikely to take place to begin with. In the East, I will predict that regular season form holds up through the playoffs; so Philly over Baltimore, New York over Queens, Philly over New York. In the West, though, although I have picked Dallas to win the division, I think Hikaru will make sure his schedule is clear for the postseason and that Seattle will beat San Francisco and Dallas in turn (Dallas having beaten Chicago meantime). In the finals, with a 2-2 tie a distinct possibility, Hikaru's legendary blitz prowess makes Seattle the favorite.

So there you have it. But do watch all the matches anyway, because it is always interesting to see how things happen.

All the Marbles

2008-12-06T03:24:00.001-08:00

I notice that a lot of people weighing in so far pick one team or the other because they like some player, or think somebody is an admirable person. There’ll be none of that here.

Quite a long break since the division finals, hasn’t there been? I hope the players don't show as much rust as I felt putting this jumble together. To quote one of my less prescient jumbles (which is most of them, granted), the end is coming just in time.

REDPUB
_ _OO_ _

LOBCAT
OO_O_ _

MACER
_ _O_O

SOFIT
_ _ _OO

Answer: THEY LOVED THAT “_ _ _ _/ _”/ _ _ _ _ (i.e., 4,1,4; slashes indicate spaces)

Mindful of the possibility of a marathon tiebreaker such as we saw last year, the league has scheduled this match for the reasonable time of 3PM Eastern. I’m afraid the image conveyed by those old USCF catalogs showing little Davey Gertler tearing open gift-wrapped Informants and Heuer Chess Champions (too good to be called a mere clock) handed him by Santa Bisguier never really reflected the reality of chess in this country. But the league seems determined to do its part to make the game more family-friendly, so I applaud them for that, and I’m sure Phil Mushnick* does too (or would, if he knew or cared about chess).

But who will win this rematch of last season’s final, where callowness prevailed over experience? I think that this time, youth will be trumped by senescence. Boston, 2.5.1.5. Thank you and good night.

* New York Post sports/media columnist

Division Finals

2008-11-19T02:01:00.000-08:00

Boston vs. Carolina:

I’m almost over Carolina losing to Baltimore that time. Give me another week. Boston, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs. Dallas

NOREPS
OO_ _O_

PERDOG
_O_OO_

MULER
_O_ _O

BAWLY
_ _ _ OO

Answer: THE _ _ _ _ _ OF “_ _ _ _ _”

Miami, 2.5-1.5.

Division Semi-finals

2008-11-10T11:39:00.000-08:00

It’s the playoffs! Carolina and Miami clearly outperformed this week’s opponents this season but if they lose tonight it’s over for them just the same. In the predictors contest, though, it’s just another week. No need for silly artifice to enhance the excitement here. So...are you READY? Here it comes!!

Boston vs. Queens:

Queens is playing without the league’s MVP but I am sure there is a good reason. Probably Coach Stripunsky feels that Lenderman does such a great job with the team blog that he doesn’t want him to have any distractions. Always trust the coach. Queens, 2.5-1.5.

New York vs. Carolina:

Interesting match between the guys who did the job all year and the guys who did it only when they had to. I’m more comfortable with the latter type. New York, 2.5-1.5.

San Francisco vs. Dallas:

UMBRIA
O O O_ _ _

SEWARD
O O_O_ _

KYLAB
_O _OO

NOGAY
O_ _O_

Answer: HE _ _ _ _ THE “_ _ _ _ _ _ _”

San Francisco, 2.5-1.5

Miami vs. Seattle:

With White, Hikaru has favored 1 g3 this year, which seems to me the worst of both worlds (too weak for advantage, but not weak enough to be insulting). It reminds be of the way Dzhindzhi would give Asa Hoffmann 15-1 money odds while receiving pawn and move; just a tiny ego gain if he scores 100% but the chance to get hit hard in the wallet with a little bad luck. Anyway, Hikaru has Black tonight, which is probably a good thing for his team. But Miami is a team full of geniuses and I don’t think they’ll lose. I forecast a tie.

Week Ten

2008-10-29T02:34:00.000-07:00

Carolina vs Philadelphia:

TINYME
_OOO_ _

ELMDYE
_O_ _O_

INGER
O_O_ _

INKEG
_OO_ _

Answer: THERE WAS TOO MUCH _ _ _/_ _/_ _ _ _

Philadelphia, 2.5-1.5.

Boston vs Queens:

If Boston loses here, they may face Queens in the first round of the playoffs, where, let’s face it, they’ll be a big underdog. I don’t think they’ll risk that happening. Boston, 2.5-1.5.

New York vs New Jersey:

New York has had the magic touch of late while for NJ it has been tragic, much. I like NY’s colors also. New York, 2.5-1.5.

Tennessee vs Baltimore:

So it worked out that the only inter-division pairing in the last week matches both cellar-dwellers. Not even the top draft choice is at stake here, but at least that means you can safely root for your team to win, and both teams can go all-out with little risk of career-ending injury. So I want all of you to watch, though I expect only Baltimore’s fans to go to bed happy. Baltimore, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs San Francisco:

Some may think me timid picking so many one-point margins but in fact 2.5-1.5 shows true dominance, as it indicates the winning team can name the score. Miami by the minimum.

Dallas vs Chicago:

Dallas has a healthy rating edge and is even getting a bit of time odds. So I guess they’ll win, but they probably don’t need to win big so I guess they won’t. Dallas, 2.5-1.5.

Arizona vs Seattle:

Seattle looked like a sure playoff leam last year before a late-season collapse. Will that thought be lurking in the back of their minds, or will it boldly occupy the front and center? I’m betting on the latter. Arizona, 2.5-1.5.

Week Nine

2008-10-21T22:19:00.000-07:00

New York vs. (versUS) Baltimore:

First, I’d like to compliment Greg for his use of the “X” symbol in the standings for “eliminated”. In leagues like the NHL, the NBA, and this one, this is much more informative than the indication of what teams have clinched playoff spots. The only suggestion I would make is to list the standings in reverse order, so that I can quickly glean the important info without having to mess with the scroll bar or the Page Down key. Anyway, don’t trust anyone over thirty. At least when it comes to playing chess. New York, 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia vs. Boston:

This match illustrates the paradox of the all-but-mathematically eliminated team: Philadelphia needs this match so badly that they hardly need it at all. I have always a paradox to be named after me, but go watch them name it for someone else. Boston, 2.5-1.5.

New Jersey vs. Miami:

BELJUM
OO_O_ _

UTANGO
OO_O_ _

CHILZ
_O_ _O

KREAM
_ _ _OO

Answer: _ _ _ _ _ SAID, “_ _ _ _ _!”

Miami, 2.5-1.5

Dallas vs. San Francisco:

I heard that NN would be playing board four San Francisco, so I looked up some of his games. His style seems to be a mixture of “The Allies” and “Three Swedish Amateurs”, who share a healthy regard for material although they occasionally neglect development. But I have played and watched enough live games to be immune to the bias of game publishers; in real life, material usually prevails. SF, 2.5-1.5.

Seattle vs Tennessee:

To quote a former member of a defunct chess club formerly to be found midtown in America’s largest city, “if I go, I’m taking someone with me”. Burnett was around some in those days, and I am guessing some of the attitude wore off (onto him, I mean). Tennessee, 2.5-1.5.

Chicago vs. Arizona:

The all-but-all-but eliminated face the all-but eliminated here. I see the all-but-all-but putting the all-but out of their misery, perhaps with nembutal. But maybe not. But probably. Chicago, 2.5-1.5.

Week Eight

2008-10-15T03:20:00.000-07:00

Baltimore vs. Boston:

Although I expressed a contrary belief earlier this season, recent data suggest that the family that fianchettos together, be in ghettos together. Boston, 2.5-1.5.

Chicago vs. Queens:

Though Lenderman told USCL reporter Elizabeth Vicary, “I have a lot of practical experience whereas the others don't maybe as much”, Tate evidenced more practicality and experience in declining to be interviewed just before the big match. Meanwhile, with such other inflammatory remarks as “I don't feel like I'm ready to lose a game”, “I am confident every game”, "I'm ready as I can be”, and “I will be ready :)” the only question is whether Chicago has enough room on their bulletin board to fit it all. Given the stakes, I’m sure they’ll make the room somehow even if they have to tear down the mayor’s picture. Chicago, 2.5-1.5.

San Francisco vs. Tennessee:

I admit I sometimes skip Greg’s ten minutes of possible playoff scenarios at the end of all his videos, but my intuition tells me that with so many teams so far ahead, Tennessee can’t possibly overtake enough of them. Meanwhile, the Nics will be trying to qualify as high as possible. So San Francisco, 3-1.

Seattle vs. Arizona:

IAMSAM
O _ O _ _ O

DISPUT
_ O O _ _ O

DEKIB
_ _ O O _

NOBIS
_ _ O O O

Answer: HE WAS PLAYING “_ _ _” / _ _ _ / _ _ _ _ _ (3, 3, 5; needed to slash because the blog won't let me separate normally)

But will the _ _ _ _ _ be fast enough? Seattle, 2.5-1.5.

Week Seven

2008-10-08T11:04:00.000-07:00

Baltimore vs. Carolina:

We’ve all read (with the exception of those of you who don’t read any of this stuff [but I’m sure you’re all busy with Faulkner and Hemingway]) plenty about hurt feelings of players picked to lose or the quality of their game questioned, but please spare a thought for the prognosticator who draws a whole jumble thing indicating a certain player will win, and then that player LOSES????? "Never again", “Fool me once...”, all that. Baltimore, 2.5-1.5.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia:

Doesn’t that Philly logo skull look a bit on the Neanderthal side? Dallas, 2.5-1.5

Arizona vs. Miami:

Adamson has been doing double-duty, picking the matches and then playing in them. I think this is beyond the capacity of any one human to handle. Miami, 2.5-1.5.

San Francisco vs. Seattle:

HYPNOT
OO_O_ _

NOLAGO
OOO_ _ _

BALTS
O_O_O

OTING
OO_ _ _

Answer: HE WAS _ _ _ _ _ _ _ A “_ _ _ _”

Ergo, San Francisco, 2.5-1.5

Week Six

2008-10-01T03:10:00.000-07:00

Carolina vs. Queens:

Off to a 5-0 start, Queens is apparently concentrating on getting everyone into the game and improving team morale, even perhaps at the expense of a record-setting (and pressure-bringing) regular season. I pick Stripunsky to win Coach of the Year and Carolina to win this match, 2.5-1.5.

New Jersey vs. Baltimore:

The color assignments give NJ the edge in the grandmaster battle and the prospect of another Big Mac attack on board three. Two and four look solid enough, so I’m going with the Knockouts by decision, 2.5-1.5.

Boston vs. Philadelphia

ASVILE
O _ O _ O O

SCOSOM
O _ O O O _

HANES
_ O O O _

CUBAS
O O O _ _

Boston fans relished the savory taste of battle, the thrilling sight of blood, and...

THE SWEET “_ _ _ _ _ _ _” _ _ _ _ _ _ _

(Boston, 2.5-1.5)

Chicago vs. Miami:

In a match as tough as this one looks, the human prognosticator must venture where power ratings fear to tread. My own chess results may not have improved perceptibly after age 23, but I did develop a more mature understanding of why I wasn’t better. Rodriguez, as the youngest, seems most likely to be underrated and I am therefore giving Miami the nod, though if you weren’t looking closely you might think I was just falling asleep. The Sharks by one.

Tennessee vs. Dallas:

It looks like Tennessee just misses being able to play Burnett with this lineup. That kind of sucks for them (“sucks”, used in this manner, used to be considered vulgar for a family web page, but Jeopardy champ Ken Jennings, practicing Mormon and the idol of young, intelligent, clean-cut America, uses it this way so I think that battle can be declared lost, for whoever may have been still fighting it) Dallas by a point. And until next week--so long, suckers!

Week Five

2008-09-24T09:08:00.000-07:00

Philadelphia vs. New Jersey:

Big rating edge for NJ. Philly has shown they will not roll over and die, but the downside to that attitude is that you often end up more thoroughly dead as a result. New Jersey, 3-1.

San Francisco vs. Boston:

Watching Larry C drop his queen last week, I was reminded of an Olympic wrestler who had some sort of accident that left him paralyzed from the waist down. He explained on TV how he came to deal with his reduced physical abilities by analogizing with chess. He used to get very upset whenever he lost his queen, he said. But then one day (after losing his queen) he realized “hey, I’ve still got a rook, knight and bishop to play with!” This week, with Wolff and Friedel otherwsie engaged, San Francisco lost the equivalent of a queen from their lineup. But by now I’m sure they realize that hey, they’ve still got a Bhat, a Pruess and a Shankland to play with. San Francisco, 2.5-1.5.

Seattle vs. Dallas:

Clicking the names, I see that Varizova is now putting her own face to her name, which I take as a sign of increased confidence. I don’t have much idea here so I’ll let that be my decider. Confident Dallas by a point.

Baltimore vs. Chicago

LYDOME
_ O _ _ O O

BUMAIR
O O O _ _ _

YORAH
_ O _ O _

UMIDO
O _ _ _ O

Looks like I forgot to write the caption. It's supposed to say "Fans knew things would get sharp on 2 because....".

Answer: IT WAS THE “_ _ _ _ _” _ _ _ _ _

Chicago, 2.5-1.5

Arizona vs. Carolina:

Looking at each individual pairing, it is surprising to see Arizona’s rating edge as big as it is. Looking at the pairings as a whole, though, with Arizona ahead on each board, it’s surprising to see the ratings as close as they are. With surprises wherever you look, a Carolina victory should not surprise. But I am not simply being glib; à propos of en passant (and it’s not piling on if no one else is talking about it anymore), a commenter on another website wrote: “If your pawn misses a capture because the other player used a two-space move, tough shit, Sherman.......it's always struck me as being a jarring, out-of-character rule that looks like it was invented by someone bitter his pawn-heavy strategy kept getting foiled by the two-space rule.” So it’s a matchup issue; a team that relies heavily on the two-space rule (Arizona) happens to be facing a team of pawn-heavy strategists (Carolina). The ‘Bras, 2.5-1.5.

Week Four

2008-09-17T15:43:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. Boston:

I’m as tired of picking Boston as you are of me picking them. But whether it’s the chill northern climate that discourages outdoor activities, or the rah-rah spirit of the small town, something is working for them. I think I have to pick them till they lose (but I’m not doubling my bet each week). Oh wait, they already lost. New Jersey, then, by one.

Carolina vs. New York:

Back to righty this week . I tried to get some inspiration by looking up famous right-handed artists, but I couldn’t find anything. It must be discouraging for aspiring dextral talents, but I’m too busy with my men’s rights work to fight for their cause.

New York, 2.5-1.5

Dallas vs. Miami:

I clicked on Vazirova’s name, and she sure looks like Zorigt to me. The guys who run this league are tough to fool, though, and Dallas was busted and sentenced to hard time odds. I predict that this proves good for their souls but bad for their chess game. Miami, 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia vs. San Francisco:

This “Sally Solomon” sounds like a very wise woman, and she picks Philadelphia. I don’t quite understand why, but I think I have a clue. Kudrin has the Pioneer Palace training, while Smith can see Russia from his house. Still, those ratings on the right are pretty scary. I think I’m going to split this baby in half. Cat’s match.

Tennessee vs. Arizona:

The question here is not who will win the match, but when the league will step in and do something to restore a bit of competitive balance to the league.

Tennessee, 2.5-1.5

Week Three

2008-09-10T02:00:00.000-07:00

New York vs. Philadelphia:

Though my job here is to predict the match outcomes I am going off the meter for a bit to announce that my best bet, lock of the week is that Charboneau-Kudrin will be a draw. Meanwhile, GM Fred Horowitz makes his debut on board 2. I assume he is Al’s kid, in which case, Smith had better watch out for those bishops! With a slightly smaller rating difference, White would feel honor-bound to play for a win and perhaps overpress, but at about 100 points he’ll feel it’s ok to play safe, so a draw is the likely outcome (see, read this blog diligently and once in a while you’ll stumble upon a really profound insight). White has a comparable edge on the bottom two boards, but standing on Isaac Newton’s shoulders, I see that teams at rest tend to stay at rest. Philadelphia, 2.5-1.5.

Carolina vs. Baltimore:

I switched the mouse settings before doing this drawing because, like Da Vinci and Michelangelo, I am left-handed. But after so many years of being too lazy or stupid to change to the lefty setting, I think I am asking for trouble doing it now so I will remain a right-handed computer user and desk sitter.

INLYV
O O _ _ O

LEMAC
_ _ O O O

FUDERS
O _ O _ O O

LUMINA
O _ _ O O O

Answer Here:

THE "_ _ _ _ _ _ " ALWAYS _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Carolina, 2.5-1.5.

Chicago vs. Tennessee:

Look for Strunk to demonstrate the elements of style as the Blaze amaze, 3-1.

Queens vs. Arizona:

Is Lenderman the guy who plays the Morra Gambit? Too bad he plays Black here against the man who has been teasing us with talk of an exciting new refutation. Speaking of Morra Gambiteers (I wonder who invented that word? Has a nice swashbuckling ring), there is on youtube a clip of Ken Smith at the final table of the WSOP in the 1970s. A poster commented “what’s with the Monopoly guy?” (i.e., “Rich Uncle Pennybags” of whom see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Uncle_Pennybags . Close resemblance, one must admit). Arizona, 2.5-1.5.

Seattle vs. New Jersey:

[color=white]I wonder what “rating” list these “Knockouts” are using [/color] Oops, didn’t work. Moving along, though, this great matchup of team names may actually be overshadowed by the matchup of players. Gulko is still very strong, but are the Gulkos still America’s first chess family? Two GM’s give New Jersey the edge (sorry, I’m out of profound insight for this week). 2.5-1.5, NJ.

Week Two

2008-09-02T03:12:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. Queens

Last week, New Jersey won their match despite Benjamin’s losing on board one, and Joel must have wondered how warm the consoling remarks from his teammates would have been had the team not won anyway. I think Joel will win this week and not find himself in that uncomfortable position. Queens, 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia vs. Baltimore

The family that plays together, slays together. Baltimore, 2.5-1.5.

Boston vs. Carolina

These “Elo” numbers next to the players’ names are the coolest thing since sabermetrics. Boston, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs. New York:

Miami just missed making the final last season, while New York’s brief history has featured a couple of agonizing near misses. A couple of unfamiliar names grace Miami’s lineup this week, while NY’s features the same old same old. This reflects the contrasting philosophies of the two teams: in Miami, if you can’t cut the mustard, it’s au revoir, sayonara, and hasta la vista while the New York team is more tradition-bound. So while one may envy NY their bonhomie, camaraderie and esprit de corps, the hard-minded bettor has to respect the more competitive attitude embraced by Miami. The Sharks, 2.5-1.5.

Chicago vs. San Francisco:

One nice thing about writing up these predictions here is that I can misspell “Bhat” all I like and there is no penalty, whereas if I’m playing Scrabble® or some other word game, “baht” is a SE Asian currency while “bhat” is a lost turn or lost points. If any of you have this problem too, remember this mnemonic I just thought of—“Vinay Bhat wears a size B hat”. San Francisco, 2.5-1.5.

Tennessee vs. Seattle:

TIMVO
O O O _ _

TEPNS
O _ O _ O

GHELMP
O O _ O _ _

TALHEH
_ O _ O O _

Answer Here:

“_ _ _ _ _ _ _” was off “_ _ _ _ _”

Sorry, but that is the best I could do format-wise. For the first word , unscramble "timvo" to make a five-letter word and use the "circled" letters in positions 1, 2 and 3 toward the final answer. From "tepns" use letters 1, 3 and 5 from the unscrambled word. Etc.

After that, you know the drill. Rearrange the circled letters to form the final answer as suggested by the cartoon (but I'm not going to explain what is said or happening there, because that would be to admit failure as a cartoonist).

Oh, and Seattle, 3-1.

Dallas vs. Arizona

“Bartholomew” is thought by some to derive from “Bar Ptolemy”, which is Ancient-speak for “son of Ptolemy”. As such, John Bartholomew may be related to Cleopatra. If so, it is possible that he is snake-bitten (oh, I see they’re the “scorpions”. Too late to go back now. Anyway, close enough). Therefore, I pick Arizona, 2.5-1.5.

Week One

2008-08-27T00:09:00.000-07:00

Though I am sure everyone eagerly awaits the wisdom of last year’s prediction champ, candor requires me to report that I recall hardly anything from last year or previous years at just this moment. So, although you should give my opinions due respect, do exercise sound money management and don’t start off betting the ranch. Put just a few dollars on this week’s matches and double your bets each week as the season progresses.

New York vs. Boston

I’m having a hard time finding new ways to say “this team will win because their ratings are higher” or “because I picked against them last week” or “because I insulted one of their guys and now I feel bad” but I’ll give it my best shot. Shabalov’s incendiary comments might backfire in a purely physical context, but adrenalin isn’t everything in chess, with its inescapable mental component; and excessive anger may get in the way of clear thinking. New York by a point.

Baltimore vs. New Jersey

I feel like we’ve seen this match before. So here is something I’m pretty sure you haven’t seen before; from my pursuit of the elusive red dot on Yahoo chess (sorry I don’t know how to include diagrams, because this little opus deserves several):

White Some guy Black Our hero

1.d4 d5 2. Bg5 h6 A useful deflection. The bishop will be less on h4 than it is now.

3.Bh4 c5 4.e3 Nc6 5.c4 A revealing moment. White’s Bg5 on move two showed a conscious wish to be seen as a free spirit, but now this very Queen’s Gambit-like move betrays an unconscious but deeply ingrained instinct to conform.

5...cd 6.ed Qa5+ 7.Nc3 Nf6 8.Bf6 ef 9.cd Bb4 A motif borrowed from the Panov Caro-Kann.

10.dc White, though, is too proud to borrow. “Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall”, and Rybka agrees.

10...Bc3+ 11.bc Qc3+ 12.Ke2 0-0 13.f3 Qb2+ The ordinary player would be all over ...Re8+, but this zwischenzug shows the hand of the master.

14.Ke3 14 Kd3 was cleverer, inviting ... Bf5+ 15 Ke3 Rae8+ 16 Kf4, when suddenly White is attacking. If, however, Black first cuts the king’s retreat with 14... Re8, White is caught between the Scylla of ...Bf5+ and the Charybdis of ...Ba6+. And Rybka agrees.

14... Re8+ 15 Kf4 Qf2 White Resigns

“It is folly to kick against the pricks”, quoth Terence (and Rybka agrees).

New Jersey, 2.5-1.5

Queens vs. Philadelphia

Is Dmitry Schneider related to his brother? And didn’t they use to spell their name differently.... As for this match, youth will be served...on a plate. Philly by one.

Carolina vs. Tennessee

Bad Ronald will look to debut with a splash, and these Cobras won’t be charmed. Carolina, 3-1.

San Francisco vs. Dallas

SF’s young guys seemed underrated last year, so I’ll assume they still are until proven otherwise, especially in a league where each team brings its own rating list. I pick the ‘Nics, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs. Seattle

The Sharks are feeling free from want.....tonight.....
The Sharks are taking en passant.....TONIGHT
We said “okay, no Dragon (too slick)"
But we’ll be autoflaggin’, so better be quick

Miami, 2.5-1.5

The Big One

2007-11-28T11:39:00.000-08:00

To anyone disappointed by my miscall of both division finals, let me explain that though I have worked out various formulas, heuristics, and algorithms that enable me to forecast future events pretty accurately, I am not going to waste them on an online chess match.

Ok, now that that is clear, I will spin the dial on this one. Christiansen has not tasted the bitters of defeat this season, beating two GMs and drawing the other seven. I have to give Boston an edge on board one, even with having to move second.

Davorin Kuljasevic (“vicious jerk; vandal” and Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (“senoras: major humbug”) have both been stars this season. I’d give Boston the normal White edge on Two.

Stopa and Shmelov have performed comparably so again an edge to the shinier pieces.

I’d thought I’d read that Williams had broken 2300, but the USCL page indicates only 2241. Is it too out of date or too up to date? Going by USCL performance, though, he rates as a solid favorite with White.

So, it looks like the dial landed on red. Boston, 2.5-1.5. Now let me get out my algorithms again and return to lucrative enterprises.

Western Division Final: Miami vs. Dallas

2007-11-19T00:26:00.000-08:00

When I picked Miami to win its wildcard match against San Francisco, I was chided by a west coast correspondent who said that the key to the match was preparation, and that the ‘Nics had it all over the Sharks in that department. So it may have seemed to many at the time, but this was before that existence of the Becerra files was public knowledge. Having to give draw odds in the match, it seemed that a victory with white on Board One would surely have to figure in any winning scenario for Miami. But upon seeing Zilberstein play right into the files versus Martinez, Becerra contented himself with a quick draw, which proved to be all Miami needed.

Miami gave us the Watergate burglars, but what was the real significance to that election of the Republicans capturing the McGovern campaign plans? But were an ambitious young burglar to get his hands on the Becerra files, that could change history. Unless the story was buried on the inside pages, though, I don’t think it’s happened. Therefore I pick Miami to win, 2.5-1.5, and to meet Boston for the championship.

Eastern Division Final: New York vs. Boston

2007-11-14T04:13:00.000-08:00

What do the moon landings, the Iraq war, and the Eastern division semi-final have in common? They were all directed from Texas. Of course, both Boston and New York have a player there; Perelshteyn beating Krush in their game (of course, Irina is still the #1 Spice girl). Some have claimed this will give Boston a psychological lift, but I think New York’s (not only Charbonneau’s) motivation for revenge is stronger. Also, New York must feel they dodged a bullet in that the game didn’t take place in this match, as it well might have.

New York chose White on boards one and three, which creates rematches on those two boards. Last time, Christiansen drew comfortably with Nakamura while Shmelov drew uncomfortably with Bonin. Obviously, NY plans to do better this time. On the whole, I think they made the right choice.

Though it is not my job, I want to take this opportunity to note Martha Fierro’s great work on board four for New York. Often the players on the lower boards toil in obscurity, and I would not like them to think they are unappreciated. So once more, great job, Martha! I knew you were a player to watch.

Alright, time to make a pick. I mentioned New York’s revenge motivation, but Boston has one or two bad memories themselves that they’d like to erase. There’s too little to pick from, so I won’t. 2-2 is the way I see it, with Boston advancing.

Wildcard Round

2007-11-06T00:17:00.001-08:00

Philadelphia vs. New York:

One night once upon a time while I was tending the local chess club, Harry from the park introduced me to someone he described as a prospective member. It was probably just an excuse to use the bathroom, but I was always flattered when somebody troubled to make an excuse. Anyway, this 40-something guy described himself as basically a beginner, but he had a plan for storming the chessic heights despite his late introduction to the game. He said he was going to study, study and study until he came up with an idea that nobody had ever thought of before, and very early in the game—about move 5 or 6.

Of course, an experienced chessplayer (such as I was) knows that this is a very hard thing to do, but from Mr. 40-something’s self-description, it seemed like he might be the man to do it. He was smart, he graduated from Harvard at the top of his class, AND his psychiatrist was one of the best in the city. Sad to say, though, years have passed and I have heard nothing more of this 50-something-by-now guy. Hikaru Nakamura, aside from showing great form in Europe these past couple of weeks, has often come out with moves that are very offbeat, if not exactly new, even earlier than move 6. By now I think he is ready with the brand-new stuff. I see him leading his team to a one-point victory.

Miami vs. San Francisco:

To me, hero worship is strictly for kids, so while I admire Magnus Carlsen’s great success at such a young age, I haven’t taken down my posters of Sergey Karjakin. But Julio Becerra’s two consecutive MVP seasons have me looking to make wall space. The shortened time control ought to favor a good king-pawn player, so I think Miami has a solid edge on Board One.

Bhat finally lost last week, but if everything could be predicted so easily, there’d be no need for people like me. Joe DiMaggio followed his 56-game hitting streak with a 16-game streak. On the other hand, the Colorado Rockies won 23 out of 24 and then got swept by Boston. But as I said, if it were so easy, you wouldn’t need me. I think Bhat will bounce back and is a likely winner on Board Two.

Unless I counted wrong, Martinez and Zilberstein have met four times in USCL play, with Marcel winning one and drawing the rest. On the one hand, Marcel has had three whites out of four. On the other hand, this game makes it our out of five. So give Miami the edge on Board Three.

So with the match looking very tight on the top three boards, that makes Board 4 the one to watch (especially if you are a “guest”). Barredo has done quite well this season after an uninspiring 2006. This could be because he is a young player who naturally improved over the course of a year. Or perhaps he is a middle-aged guy who has good days and bad, and just happened to have more good ones this year. With no picture and no DOB listed on the USCL page, I can only guess. But I can still use my head a little bit. He is 2160 for league purposes, and apparently still 2160 currently. This indicates a not-too-active player, and so probably a middle-aged guy who happened to have had mostly good days this year. So Board Four looks like a tossup.

So two slight edges for Miami, one perhaps bigger one for San Francisco, and one tossup. You can do the math. But again, if it were just a question of math, you wouldn’t need me. Without the advantage of draw odds, Miami’s players will just assume they need to win, and will be less distracted about game-versus-match considerations. I pick Miami to win, 2.5-1.5.

Week 10

2007-10-31T03:23:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. Philadelphia

Boston looks a little better. I was thinking that they might tie because a tie was as good as a win, but that means a tie is as good as a loss to Philly, doesn’t it. Just goes to show you. So, Boston. 2.5-1.5.

Queens vs. Baltimore

I usually don’t expect much effort from spoilers, but chess is different from most games in that if you lose, there’s a permanent record of it, with all the gory details. And in the electronic age, there’s not even the thought of the scoresheet deteriorating with age to comfort you. So I expect a serious effort from Queens, and with not much to choose from, I see the team that needs to win going crazy. Queens, 2.5-1.5.

New York vs. New Jersey

Though it is rarely talked about, “Pascal Charbonneau” is an anagram of “unhorse Capablanca”. However, it is Benjamin he needs to unhorse and last time Joel stayed comfortably in the saddle. But this time Pascal has white. New Jersey is fielding the same lineup they won with last time. But with Hess and Arnold out for trick-or-treats, Krush is forced to play adults only (lest Hess and Arnold be accused of selfishness, I understand that both will be collecting for UNICEF). With two such strong lineups, the decision may turn on which team is able to get to the match, and during the Village Halloween parade, it takes a silver tongue indeed to talk one’s way past the cops blocking access to Tenth Street between Fifth and Sixth Avenues. Hopefully, Krush and Charbonneau will have their customary early dinner on the block, but boards 3 and 4 still loom as likely forfeits. New Jersey, 2.5-1.5.

Tennessee vs. Carolina

With both teams mathematically eliminated, Coach Jones has emptied the bench. Or maybe he wants to bask in the glory of playing on Board One. But if these matches were being played with plastic and vinyl, in a live setting, it would be the higher matches that were roped off, not the various games on Board One. Still, it is nice to be on the aisle and not have to squeeze between tightly-placed tables all the time.

Anyway, I hope both teams have fun, but what with the tight race among us prognosticators, I can’t afford to empty the benches of my mind. I pick the higher-rated Tempo to win, 3-1.

San Francisco vs. Dallas

First, let’s applaud Dallas for fielding a strong lineup though the match is important only to the other team. WOOHOO, YAY DALLAS! Wolff still has some rust but if I know anything about style*, rust goes better with white than with black. Bhat is perfect, but Kuljasevic is pretty good. Zilberstein has only played once but he seems to remember how to play. Doibani has not played for Dallas this season and being a college student, I doubt she’s been playing in many weekend swisses. So I give Frisco (I don’t pretend to be from there, so I have no problems calling it that) the edge. 2.5-1.5, the ‘Nics.

* I do.

Seattle vs. Miami

Another tough one. It’d be sad if Miami’s heroic upset win of last week were to go to waste. I don’t like to be sad, or even to think about being sad. Miami, 2.5-1.5.

Week 9

2007-10-23T23:27:00.000-07:00

Philadelphia vs. New York:

Lapshun is known for playing such offbeat openings as the Orangutan, but you haven’t really experienced him until you’ve taken him into the endgame and seen him demonstrate the Ocelot opposition or the Zebu zugzwang. I’ll bet Kudrin never learned those at the Pioneers Palace. New York, 2.5-1.5.

New Jersey vs. Baltimore:

Don’t look now, but that little kid on Jerry Hanken’s shoulders in Chess Life is now a strong adult grandmaster. I look for him to lead his team to victory. 2.5-1.5, New Jersey.

Queens vs. Boston:

It’s been so long since Stripunsky has played that I’d begun to wonder if he had found another game that he liked better than chess, so it is nice to see him in the lineup tonight. I think he made the right decision. Back in the summer of ’72 I spent a good part of most days at a free camp held at the local public school. One night at home my sister was bragging on the chess prowess of a kid named Elias, telling our mother “he beats men!” So I could hardly believe my opportunity some few days later when said Elias asked me if I wanted to play a game. I said sure, how about...chess? He said “ha ha, why don’t we play.......Candy Land”. He wasn’t feeling so mirthful when he presently found himself mired in the Molasses Swamp. But a mating net brings much more satisfaction than a swamp, and I’ll always wonder how I’d have fared had I gotten to try my double-the-rooks-on-the-king-file opening against him.

But this isn’t summer day camp, and you don’t get a choice of what game to play. So Stripunsky gets his shot against Christiansen. But Boston’s Coach Krasik isn’t going to sit around eating bonbons while his team struggles. He’s taking a board himself. Boston, 2.5-1.5

Carolina vs. Miami:

I can’t say I know how the league Powers That Be came up with the 57 minutes figure but I can tell that it’s a carefully worked-out formula. In any case, I have to admire them for how sternly they dealt with Miami’s last-minute monkey business. The weed of crime bears bitter fruit. Crime does not pay. Carolina, 3-1.

Tennessee vs. Dallas:

Living in the skinland, I don’t know very much about heartland players so I tried to measure the fame of all the players here by typing each name into the Yahoo search box to the point where it auto-completed itself as a popular search. This is how far I had to type for Tennessee:

Ronald Burn, Todd Andr, Jerry Wh, Gerald Lar.

Compared to this for Dallas:

Drasko Bo, Davorin Ku, Andrei Zar, Bayaara Z.

So it is clear enough where the fame edge lies. I realize that one’s renown is not always precisely equal to one’s merit, but I can only go by what I know. Dallas, 3-1.

Week 8

2007-10-17T00:22:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. Boston

The Christiansen-Benjamin game looks like the people’s choice this week so I feel obliged to talk a little about it. Larry is a three-time US champ but with three titles of his own, Joel has shown himself to be more than just another pet rock-owning, mood ring-wearing Fischer boomer. In fact, he probably feels no kinship at all with that whole crowd of fashion-following wannabes. But certainly, many of the 1946-1964 generation of Americans were not born merely because everyone was doing it, but nonetheless, they are all counted as “baby boomers”. So is Joel a “Fischer boomer”. Sorry, Joel, you just are. Alright, on to the game. I guess one of them will win, or it’ll be a draw. But Boston has the edge on 2, and the underrated guys on 3 and 4. The big question is how will Williams react to his first deep draft of the bitters of defeat? i think hell return 2 form cuz thats just the way it is. Boston, 2.5-1.5.

Baltimore vs. Philadelphia

What with five previous meetings, this match is practically a Caissic Army-Navy game with postseason implications . Erenburg hardly plays, it seems, so I’m guessing he won’t be too ambitious against Kudrin. I give Philly the edge then with White on two of the remaining boards. Philadelphia, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs. Tennessee:

I remember a lot of talk last season about the Martinez-Andrews rivalry or non-rivalry (depending on who you were reading), but they never met, so it was all talk. Now, they really do seem about to play but there’s no talk anywhere, as far as I can see. How's that for paradoxical? Meanwhile, Miami’s lineup this week keeps changing but they still have a healthy rating edge. Let me just say Miami by a point.

Carolina vs. San Francisco:

By the time I fully trusted in the dosage index at Kentucky Derby time it began to fail. Of course, they would always reconjigger the formula to make it work retroactively but I couldn’t do the same with my bets. In any case, Bhat always wins and his rating never goes up, so that makes him a dual qualifier in my book. I pick San Francisco by the odd game.

Dallas vs. Seattle:

Easter and Christmas come around just once a year. But we hear more about Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny each year on just those days than we do about Wotan and Thor in all 104 Wednesdays and Thursdays. The point is, you can’t rush tradition, it takes time to grow. That’s how I feel about this match; it’s too soon for me to think about it again. I picked Seattle last week by a point (I even remember without checking), and it worked out pretty well. That’s good enough for me. I’ll pick them again by the same score.

Week 7

2007-10-10T06:09:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. New York

Joe Namath became a folk hero when he guaranteed victory in Super Bowl III and then led the three-touchdown-underdog Jets to the win. Mark Messier did the same when the New York Rangers faced double match point in the 1994 Eastern conference finals. And now Hikaru has guaranteed a victory by the Knights this week. Had either Namath’s or Messier’s team lost, though, their bravado would have been looked at as an understandable attempt to rally the underdog. It takes much more courage to guarantee a win when you are 100-point favorites, because Hikaru will become a laughing stock forever if the Knights lose. That wouldn’t be much fun for him, and not much more for his teammates who’ll have to stick up for him all the time. So I think they’ll go all out to avoid that, and squeak out the 2.5-1.5 victory.

Baltimore vs. Queens

I guess that Stripunsky and Ibragimov are off at the International Grandmaster conference. I hope their trip is successful but I’m afraid that Queens will be footing the bill. Baltimore, 2.5-1.5.

Carolina vs. Tennessee

There hasn’t been such a glittering assemblage of talent in Nashville since Hank Williams took the stage with Roy Acuff, Minnie Pearl and Little Jimmy Dickens. But Carolina is too involved in the playoff race to let themselves become star-struck. I think they’ll keep their focus and pull out the minimum victory.

San Francisco vs. Miami

It would be easy to say that it’s hard to say who’ll win here, so...let me say it. It’s hard to say who’ll win here. Maybe no one will. I’ll predict a tie.

Seattle vs. Dallas

Neither team here is able to take much advantage of the titled-or-titted bonus, but both are bringing strong teams to the table. Either they have more team spirit than others or there is just less to do there. Seattle seems to have the most underrated player with Sinanan, so that tips the balance for me. Seattle, 2.5-1.5.

Week 6

2007-10-03T05:00:00.000-07:00

New Jersey vs. Carolina:

Chess is a young man’s game, and Benjamin has apparently put aside the old man’s systems of his youth. Lian hasn’t played yet, so I can only assume he is a typically underrated kid and probably smart in school. New Jersey, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs. Queens:

SIX matches to analyze this week, and I’m figuring this one out last, so I may take some lazy shortcuts. On the left, I note that Martinez has been struggling. On the right, I see something that looks suspiciously like a rating floor. One the bottom, the average ratings are pretty close. A tie then. 2-2.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia:

A close match here overall, with Dallas’s biggest (apparent) edge being on Board 3. But Costigan is a rock and never loses, so I’m picking Philly to prevail by a point.

Baltimore vs. Tennessee:

“It’s only on pay-per-view, you won’t find it on free TV...”—Yip Harburg (that’s an “epigraph”. Cool, huh? And did you dig the italics?).

Some of you may remember the “Simpsons” episode about the high-profile boxing match. One of the workers at Homer’s plant invites a few mates to his house to watch the still photos of the bout on the 11 o’clock news and hear occasional between-rounds updates on the radio. We learned that the lot of the big shot is not completely to be envied. Today, chess fans can get together for the same type of warm proletarian camaraderie with Bereolos’s live blog of the Titans’ matches. Our gain, though, is Tennessee’s loss, as they can ill afford to put out less than their strongest lineup. Baltimore, 3-1.

Boston vs. San Francisco:

This seems to be the anticipated match of the week, so I will give it a little more care. Usually I look at these things game by game, but for this, I will try to visualize the whole match at once. Kelleher should not try to out-solid Bhat but instead should play one of his tricky things and amass a big time edge. If things are going well for Boston by then, he can bang out some do-nothing moves, which as we know are the toughest ones to meet in time pressure. Wolff plays Black every week, so maybe he’ll get tired of defending and lash out prematurely. Shmelov shouldn’t press it too hard just because he’s White, because his team looks good elsewhere. If everyone listens to me, I like Boston. I imagine they will, so Boston by 2.5-1.5.

New York vs. Seattle Sluggers:

You may have heard of the Martingale betting system. The bettor bets, say, $5 on an event, and if he loses he doubles up the next week to recoup his losses. If he loses again, he doubles up again, and then again, etc., etc., etc. Etc. This creates the minor possibility of spending the rest of one’s life in debtor’s prison. On the other hand is the fantastic chance to eventually be $5 ahead. Well, you see where I’m going. New York, 2.5-1.5.

Week 5

2007-09-26T01:30:00.000-07:00

Before picking this week’s games, I’d like to call everyone’s attention to an overlooked story, namely the fact that I called every match correctly this past week. If you consider each match about a 50/50 proposition (yes, there are slight rating differences between the teams but that is balanced by the presence of three possible match outcomes), then the odds of calling all six correctly is one in two to the sixth power. I haven’t the time to write that number out, but just chew on this—we are talking about a number greater than the number of stars on the Los Angeles Galaxy, or the grains of sand on Sylvia Beach. To quote Aron Nimzowitsch, “it is a pity that I have to say this myself, but as I’d say it if it were my worst enemy, why not if it happens to be me?” Oh, someone out in the expanding-faster-than-the-universe USCL blogosphere had fun with the fact that I didn’t always realize who was playing for which team last week. Well, laugh it up. To quote my other hero, I cried all the way to the bank.

New Jersey vs. New York:

A good team captain knows how to take advantage of the rules, and so if you have two GM’s (one rated 2709) and three women on your roster, then why should you not put out a lineup rated.....2370?!?!?!?

But Charbonneau is better with Black. If anyone really is. So I will amend my initial reaction to merely “2370?!?” and forecast a 2-2 tie.

Boston vs. Baltimore:

Baltimore also has two GM’s and two women, but the ratings don’t allow them to do as much, and 2391 isn’t bad, after all. But Boston still looks too strong. The Blitz, 2.5-1.5.

Queens vs. Philadelphia:

Stripunsky-Kudrin sounds like a Dragon, unless White wants to play 2 c3, but even if he were thinking of doing so, he won’t now that the cat’s out of the bag. So look for White to open the h-file, trade the dark-squared bishops and mate while Black is sacking on c3, taking all white’s pawns and promoting the king-side. But in general, I favor the venerable masters of the Wisdom Kids. Philly, 2.5-1.5.

Tennessee vs. San Francisco:

I tried to find Burnett-Wolff or Wolff-Burnett from the 1987 or was it the 1985 US Junior at chessgames.com but it or they isn’t or aren’t there. I did learn that Burnett played Reshevsky in 1987 and 1990. As Mark Twain might have said if he were me, Reshevsky was astonished at how much the young kid had learned in three years. The test here though is how much Wolff remembers after ten years. He seemed to recall a fair amount in his USCL debut so I’m guessing he’ll hold it together here. SF looks pretty good elsewhere, so I’m picking them by 3-1.

Carolina vs. Seattle:

The higher-rated has Black everywhere, so everyone will be happy to draw. Or maybe everyone will try too hard to win. And then there's this prediction contest; I'm torn between sounding smart and being smart. Gotta make a decision, though, so...a tie. 2-2.

Week 4

2007-09-19T00:58:00.000-07:00

Queens vs. New Jersey:

First of all, what’s with scheduling this rematch for so early in the season? I’m afraid that the commissioner, with his mania for figuring the perfect formula for this and that, forgets about the human considerations that give life and color to the league. Though geographically quite near each other, the distinct individual characters of Queens and New Jersey make for a compelling rivalry from which one should really try to milk as much drama as possible. It’s the Midtown Tunnel versus the Holland Tunnel, the 59th Street Bridge vs. the GW Bridge. The Meadowlands versus Flushing Meadow, the Bergen Mall versus the Queens Center Mall. I pick Queens to take the new oaken bucket, 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia vs. Baltimore:

As I was saying, 77 points rating difference equals about a 60% expected score which out of four equals 2.4 which rounded to the nearest half-point comes to 2.5-1.5 Baltimore.

Tennessee vs. Miami:

Miami is sacrificing a bit of time on two boards, but the total is small enough that the psychological advantage of giving odds outweighs the objective handicap. Miami, 3.5-.5.

Dallas vs. Carolina:

Identical average rating, and both teams won last week. Bosko-Milman sounds like a Sicilian, Schroer-Zaikov sounds like a Slav, and Keaton Kiewra sounds like a White Anglo-Saxon Polish. Jones-Guadalupe sounds like Welsh on a peace treaty. Even so, I think eventually the combatants will be exhausted and we’ll see a 2-2 tie.

Seattle vs. San Francisco:

Readey-Donaldson looks like the renewal of an old rivalry, but I’m not really sure, since I don’t know anything about Readey, other than his living in Seattle and being about Donaldson’s age. About Seattle I do know something, namely that the Pike Place Market is there. This once earned me $575, which is $575 more than I’ll earn by guessing this match here even if I’m exactly right. Therefore, with no more ado, Seattle. 2.5-1.5.

Week 3

2007-09-12T03:23:00.001-07:00

Philadelphia vs. Boston:

This is the big match of the day, so I’m not going to cop out. On board one, we have Kudrin, a 1. e4 player, vs. Perelshteyn, a French player. Back in the Seventies and Eighties, the only answer to the Tarrasch (3. Nd2) at the higher levels was 3...c5, recapturing on d5 with the pawn, and IF Black were lucky, making a draw sixty or seventy moves later. Then sometime in the late Eighties, Back began to retake on d5 with the Queen, and then if White were lucky, he’d make it to move 30 before being mated. Somewhat ironically, Kudrin is an adherent of the Tarrasch against the French (or at least he was at the time of the 1979 US Junior championship). I say “ironically” because at a tournament at the Skyline Motor Inn in the winter of ’79-‘80, Kudrin expressed a desire for a banana brandished by a weaker player in the skittles room. Upon being asked for the banana, the weaker player asked for a chess lesson in return. Kudrin then told the weaker player he should develop his knights to c3 and f3, rather than d2 and e2 (but what about a3 and h3, you ask? I guess that is more than one banana’s worth of wisdom). Boston, 2.5-1.5.

Baltimore vs. New Jersey:

This is a tough match to call if you don’t know a certain trick of the forecaster. Look at New Jersey’s lower two boards. Notice that their ratings are just a little bit above the well-known rating floor of 2200. On the bright side, it indicates that Shen and Lunna performed well in their last tournaments before the rating list, which is perhaps what attracted the team organizer to them. On the dark side, though, they may, in a floorless world, have gone instead from 2050 to 2085. Without more time than one can afford to spend in today’s fast-paced world, there is just no way to know that this is not the case. So I pick Baltimore, 2.5-1.5.

Miami vs. Carolina:

One the one hand, Miami needs this match. On the other hand, the reason they need it is they’ve been losing all the time. Much will depend on whether Mederos is a fast-rising youth or a slowly-declining veteran (as to the answer to that question, see above about today’s fast-paced world) The two N’s in Mederos’s first name indicate that he is US-born. On the bright side, it means that no one calls him “Denise”. On the dark side, he probably did not attend the same chess school as Becerra, Lugo and Martinez. I’m picking Carolina by the usual point.

Queens vs. Dallas:

Queens has two small children in the lineup, which is fine. But seating them next to each other is asking for trouble. It is early in the life of the Queens franchise, so chalk this mistake up to inexperience. With my kind of experience, mistakes cannot be excused so readily. So I must demonstrate my savvy and pick Dallas to win, 2.5-1.5.

Seattle vs. Tennessee:

I picked the Tempo to win last week, which drew ridicule from certain quarters. Though one obviously does not get to where I am by putting science so carelessly aside, it was alleged that I had let outside pressure influence my call. And it really did look like Tennessee was going to win until they broke my heart with a corner stalemate. Well, nobody breaks my heart two weeks in a row. Seattle, 3-1.

Week 2

2007-09-03T03:58:00.000-07:00

Boston vs. Queens:

This match featurers the first appearance of both Ildar Ibragimov and Jorge Sammour-Hasbun and there has not been a more exciting pair of debutants since Brenda Frazier and Cobina Wright, Jr. took the 1938 social season by storm. Back when he was still known as Cassius Clay, Jorge was a famous child prodigy (ok, he wasn’t really famous, but you have to kind of catch the wave for chess fame). Having kept a low profile during his awkward in-between years, can he make the transition to adult stardom? Will he be Drew Barrymore, or Macauley Culkin? I think Jorge will be Drew, and Ildar will be drawn, and Queens will be lost in Boston. Blitz, it’s, 2-5-1.5.

Carolina vs. Baltimore:

Baltimore brings back its three winners from last week, spotting Carolina an average of fifty points per board. Apparently, Coach B believes in “don’t change your clothes until you lose”. Despite my scientific bent, I also have found this superstitious practice to be uncannily effective. But only in person, not online. Carolina. 3-1, just for fun.

New York vs. Philadelphia:

Some men see things as they are, and ask “why?” I dream of things that never were, and ask “why not?” For instance, why not a Knights victory this week? New York, 2.5-1.5.

Tennis E vs. New Jersey:

It’s been suggested that I rely too much on cold numbers (and numbers don’t get much colder than the ones on the dusty old rating lists some teams use) in making these predictions, and that I give short shrift to intangibles such as a certain team’s miles and miles and miles of heart. Well, maybe so. This past weekend saw Appalachian State beat Michigan in the biggest upset in college football history. So why should we not now see the biggest upset outside of college football history? One that will teach the rest of the country how to spell Tetanusy? I pick the Titans to prevail by a point.

Dallas vs. San Francisco:

Though Dallas has scurrilously been called the “European Union team”, a cursory look at their roster shows that they much more closely resemble a UN team. I don’t want to get carried away with intangibles, but I believe that the semi-tangible issue of color assignment works against San Francisco. Wolff must be rusty and would probably prefer to ease himself back in with a White or two, Bhat always wins anyway, and Pruess is supreme when he’s White. Dallas, 2.5-1.5

Miami vs. Seattle:

I admit that picking the first five matches exhausted me so I cheated and turned to the power ratings. They indicate that neither team can win. Cat’s game.

Week 1

2007-08-28T22:01:00.000-07:00

Baltimore-New York: Baltimore could put together a few different lineups that approach the rating limit, but they nonetheless are well under it this week. Perhaps they think they hold the Indian sign over New York and so can give afford to rest their GM’s. My worldview, though, rejects superstition and trusts in science. New York, 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia-Miami: I wonder why the Philadelphia Inventors don’t call themselves the “Reinventors”, as they seem to think they can do away with their history with a simple name change. This would probably work better if they had also changed cities, or at least their logo. I suppose they didn’t want to insult their new top board Sergey Kudrin, who was the model for the current logo. Miami, by contrast, had a disappointing season in ’06, but they are back with the same name, the same logo, and for the most part, the same players.

History aside, the teams look well-matched today, so I predict a 2-2 tie.

Dallas-Tennessee: Benjamin Lee Eckstein had a sports betting column in the New York Daily News for many years. I remember him from at least as far back as the early Eighties. He would always give you his won-lost record for the season, to let you know just who you were trusting with your hard-earned betting dollars. He was always solidly in the plus. How did he manage? Well, his specialty was baseball games. Baseball betting, unlike football or basketball, is based on money odds rather than a point spread. In fact, I just googled Mr. Eckstein, and I see he is still being paid to pick games today!

I pick Dallas to win.

San Francisco-Carolina: There is an art to showing contempt or lack of seriousness to your opponents; you want to show enough to make them see red without actually handicapping yourself too much. So you may open with something like 1 g4 but then follow up sedately, or bring a bottle of beer to the table but quietly refill it with tap water. I admire Carolina's strategy here but fear they may have gone too far giving the defending champs this big a rating handicap. San Francisco, 3-1.

Seattle-Boston: This one, at least, is easy to call. Boston has a former US champion on Board One. But Seattle has a former Japanese champ on Board THREE. Seattle, 2.5-1.5

Testing

2007-08-27T23:28:00.000-07:00

Hello there, this is a test!